Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

A signal to buy emerged after GBP/USD hit 1.3548. However, the pair did not increase as the MACD line was quite far from zero. Then, in the afternoon, there were a number of strong movements, especially after the release of inflation data in the US. But no signal emerged and the test of 1.3582 led to losses.

Data released yesterday showed that US CPI rose 7.5% year-over-year, after rising to 7% in December 2021. Most likely, the index increased because of extended gains in food, electricity and housing prices, which were also the reasons why inflation rose 0.6% a month earlier. And core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices as well as alcohol and tobacco, also increased 6% y/y and 0.6% m/m.

The speech of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey yesterday afternoon did not affect GBP/USD in any way, but today there may be a dip in price if data on UK GDP and industrial output turn out lower than expected. Activity in the services sector will also affect the market as a slowdown is another signal to sell pound. Strong report on US consumer sentiment will also provoke a fall, while inflationary expectations from the University of Michigan are unlikely to affect the market because everything is already clear with this component.

For long positions:

Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.3538 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3575 (thicker green line on the chart). A rally will occur if data from the UK exceeds expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3516, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3538 and 1.3575.

For short positions:

Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.3516 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3483. Pressure will return if upcoming economic data from the US was better than expected. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.3538, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3516 and 1.3483.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.