empty
17.11.2020 02:30 AM
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 17. Boris Johnson is back in self-isolation. The results of the talks between London and Brussels are due to be announced on November 19.

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -12.0718

The British pound sterling paired with the US dollar continues quite contradictory movements. The pair's quotes are currently located above the moving average line, which seems to maintain an upward trend. However, just on Friday, the price was already falling below the moving average, but could not continue to move down. Now it may be the opposite, the pair may start a new round of downward movement despite fixing above the moving average. If you look at the movement of the pound/dollar pair in the last few months, you can see that the price very often overcomes the moving average, however, it does not lead to a change in the trend to the opposite. And we have already talked about the fundamental background a million times and nothing has changed for the British pound in recent days. The future of the British economy is so hazy that even all American problems look trivial against this background. Therefore, we continue to expect the British pound to fall despite the epidemiological problems in the United States, as well as all the political confusion that has persisted there in recent months.

Meanwhile, negotiations on a trade agreement between the European Union and the UK, which will take effect (in theory) after the end of the "transition period", that is, on January 1, 2021, are continuing. The next round of talks began on Sunday in Brussels, as stated by the chief negotiator from the British side, David Frost. Frost also said that since October 22, the parties have been negotiating every day, and during this time there have been some positive developments. David Frost expressed hope that the parties will eventually come to an agreement but also warned that negotiations may fail. According to Frost, there is a common draft agreement between London and Brussels, however, there are still serious differences on several important issues. Meanwhile, "Boris Johnson's deadline" was this Sunday. Recall that on October 15, Boris Johnson graciously allowed the negotiating groups to extend the terms of discussion of the deal for 1 month. Naturally, the parties did not have time until November 15, since it was clear from the very beginning of the negotiations that such deals are not concluded in a few months. However, the point is not even in "Johnson's deadlines". The bottom line is that the end of the "transition period", which the same British Prime Minister refused to extend, is inexorably approaching. Given that it will take more time for both Parliaments to ratify and accept the deal, the negotiations need to be completed in the next few days to make it to December 31. However, several British media call the date of November 19, when everything can end. On this day, the parties will either announce an agreement or another failure. The EU summit is scheduled for this day and it is at this summit that the final decision should be made. If a deal cannot be agreed before then, then from January 1, Britain and the EU will trade with each other according to WTO rules. Of course, no one forbids them to resume negotiations in the new year. But in any case, this means that for a while the Alliance and the Kingdom will trade with each other on not the most favorable terms.

As we can see, there is still no positive news from the UK. The problems remain the same and only their solution can lead to some weakening of the negative situation for the pound. What is interesting is that with such a failed fundamental background, the pound continues to show growth. Thus, it seems that the current exchange rate of the pair already includes a deal with the European Union. If so, then if an agreement is announced, there may not be any special reaction from traders. And if there is no announcement, the pound may rush down with renewed vigor. However, Brexit is not alone. The Foggy Albion is full of other problems. For example, epidemiological. We said that the situation with the "coronavirus" is very difficult in the United States, however, the situation in the UK is no better. The country remains in first place among the EU countries in the number of deaths from the "Chinese virus", as well as the third in the number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of daily recorded cases of COVID-2019 is growing day by day, as in the States. And the UK government does not want to introduce quarantine ("lockdown"), putting the priority of the economy over health care. In principle, the situation now looks like this: the British are allowed to go to work and school, as well as to places of basic necessity and to walk in the fresh air, but all other activities are prohibited. Boris Johnson himself went into self-isolation, as he came into contact with an infected "coronavirus". The Prime Minister said that he has no signs of illness, but, according to quarantine rules, he is forced to stay out of contact with anyone for some time. Johnson is going to work remotely.

Based on all the above, we expect a resumption of the downward movement in the near future. In America, the situation is difficult, but in the UK it is even more difficult. In America, the power will change in 10 weeks, in the UK - in a few years. The United States can expect an improvement in the economic, epidemiological, geopolitical, and political picture, while the British can only expect things to get even worse. Thus, we are waiting for a new price consolidation below the moving average line. It should also be noted that there are almost no "ordinary" statistics and "ordinary" reports now. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has been making a lot of speeches lately, but he doesn't tell the markets anything extravagant. His speeches are more focused on the topic of the pandemic and the vaccine.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 110 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, November 17, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3081 and 1.3295. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals a possible resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3123

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3245

R2 – 1.3306

R3 – 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is trying to continue moving up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open new longs with targets of 1.3245 and 1.3295 if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to trade the pair down with the targets of 1.3123 and 1.3081 if the price is again fixed below the moving average line.

Paolo Greco,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Chọn khung thời gian
5
phút
15
phút
30
phút
1
giờ
4
ngày
1
ngày
1
tuần
Kiếm lợi nhuận từ những biến đổi giá của tiền điện tử với InstaForex.
Tải MetaTrader 4 và mở giao dịch đầu tiên của bạn.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    THAM GIA CUỘC THI

Các bài báo được đề xuất

Tổng quan cặp GBP/USD – Ngày 20 tháng 3: Quyết định của Ngân hàng Anh có thể làm dịu tâm lý lạc quan

Cặp tiền tệ GBP/USD đã giao dịch rất bình tĩnh vào thứ Tư, ngay cả khi xem xét các biến động vào buổi tối. Như đã nhắc nhở, chúng

Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Tổng Quan Cặp Tỷ Giá EUR/USD – Ngày 20 Tháng 3: Đồng Euro Duy Trì Vị Thế Lãnh Đạo Mạnh Mẽ

Vào thứ Tư, cặp tỷ giá EUR/USD đã có sự điều chỉnh nhẹ nhưng không thể duy trì dưới đường trung bình động. Theo truyền thống, chúng tôi sẽ không

Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/JPY: Kết quả hỗn hợp của cuộc họp tháng Ba Ngân hàng Nhật Bản và Cải cách "khoá phanh nợ" của Đức

Bức tranh nền tảng cho EUR/JPY hỗ trợ sự tăng trưởng tiếp tục của cặp tiền, đặc biệt trong bối cảnh kết quả không rõ ràng từ cuộc họp tháng

Irina Manzenko 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Đồng Euro Chạm Ngưỡng Đỉnh

Cửa cược đã đóng, quý bà và quý ông! Nhiều ván đã được đặt cược. Việc EUR/USD do dự tăng sau khi Bundestag phê chuẩn gói kích thích tài khóa

Marek Petkovich 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Phân Tích và Dự Báo

Cặp tỉ giá USD/CAD đang cho thấy dấu hiệu phục hồi trong hai ngày liên tiếp sau khi giảm gần đây, bật tăng từ mức thấp nhất trong hai tuần

Irina Yanina 10:16 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Thị trường chứng khoán chịu thiệt hại nặng nề từ lời lẽ của Washington

Hiệu ứng boomerang: gieo gió, gặp bão Mỹ đang rút khỏi toàn cầu hóa và chỉ là vấn đề thời gian trước khi đối mặt với hậu quả. Theo

Marek Petkovich 09:51 2025-03-19 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Phân tích và Dự báo

Giá vàng đã tạm dừng đà tăng khi cố gắng củng cố ở mốc cao kỷ lục mới khoảng $3,045, với việc những nhà đầu tư xu hướng tăng

Irina Yanina 09:41 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Thị trường có thể phản ứng thế nào sau cuộc họp của Fed? (Dự đoán GBP/USD giảm mạnh và chỉ số #SPX giảm)

Hôm nay, thị trường sẽ tập trung vào quyết định cuối cùng của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang về chính sách tiền tệ. Quyết định này được dự đoán

Pati Gani 08:27 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Những Điều Cần Chú Ý Vào Ngày 19 Tháng 3? Phân Tích Các Sự Kiện Cơ Bản Cho Người Mới Bắt Đầu

Có rất ít sự kiện kinh tế vĩ mô được lên kế hoạch vào thứ Tư, điều này cho thấy rằng sự biến động của cả hai cặp tiền

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Tổng Quan Cặp Tiền GBP/USD – Ngày 19 Tháng 3: Tăng Trưởng Quán Tính Tiếp Diễn

Vào thứ Ba, cặp tiền tệ GBP/USD không cố gắng điều chỉnh lại một lần nữa. Không có bối cảnh kinh tế vĩ mô nào trong ngày đó, nhưng thật

Paolo Greco 02:34 2025-03-19 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.