rom the point of view of a comprehensive technical analysis, we see a flat 1.2770 / 1.3000, in the structure of which a downward stroke develops from the upper border to the lower. The very structure of the move is not quite typical due to the recent upward movement [November 25], but it was this very bullish move that led to the activation of short positions as soon as the quote managed to fix above the mirror level of 1.2885 [50% flat]. In fact, the grazing of this region provoked a flurry of short positions, which came to the market during the topping up phase. Thus, the tact of the downward move has returned again, where the prospects of the price returning back to the tender border of the 1.2770 flat have sparkled with new colors.
In terms of volatility, we have a slight decrease relative to the previous day [76 -> 68 points], which reflects a reduced amplitude in comparison with the average daily indicator, but it should be given credit. In general terms, the market dynamics accelerated. As for the emotional component, everything is not so bad, you just look at the structure of the candles, they display impulses, which signals the activity of market participants.
Analyzing the past hourly hour, we see a quite intense downward mood, where during the very beginning of the day, the quote breaks through the night accumulation and strives for impulses that return the quote to the variable support hour after hour on November 22, [summary: 13: 00-14: 00 UTC+00 time on the trading terminal].
As discussed in the previous review, many traders are working on the decline, where at the time of recovery on November 25, recoveries were made to existing trading volumes, which is already expressed in profit.
Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], we see the third measure in the flat structure of 1.2770 / 1.3000, where the quality of formation is amazing, and the expectation of a break of the borders fuels the interest of market participants. If we deviate a little from the flat and look to the left, we will see a pulsed upward stroke, which strengthens the boundaries and, as a fact, strengthens the momentum in case of breakdown.
The news background of the past day contained data on sales of new homes in the United States, where previous data was revised for the better from -0.7% to 4.5%, and current figures came out not with growth, but with a decrease of -0.7 % with a forecast of 1.1%. In turn, the composite housing price index S & P / CS Composite-20 confirmed expectations and came out with an indicator of 2.1%.
Market reaction to statistics, perhaps, was paired with a general corrective move.
In turn, the informational background continues to plunge into the campaign bustle of the United Kingdom, where the main characters of the show are Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. Analyzing the twitter pages of the two leaders of the race, one is struck by the campaign company that is developing around them, and for a moment there is a smile and wonder what they do when there is such an outflow of investments in the country. Thus, Corbyn stubbornly urges everyone to register for the general election, almost every hour posting propaganda tweets with a link and accusing his opponent Johnson of not calling voters to register.
"Boris Johnson has so far asked people on Twitter to register to vote. He doesn't want you to vote in the general election .... " - twitter @jeremycorbyn
While the Prime Minister's page doesn't have a post, it's a mention of the long-awaited Brexit, it seems that there are no other reasons to vote for him, only for leaving the EU.
"I want us to make Brexit so that we can make our country the best in the world for life. Greatest place to start a business, have a family, get an education and just live. "- twitter @BorisJohnson
Tonight, YouGov will release details of the most anticipated vote in the UK general election. It is also called the MRP poll, which appears in the Times, predicting the outcome of the election. In fact, the information from the survey can set the market volatility. Now, what should be prepared for? The approximate publication time is 10 pm UTC+00.
In terms of the economic calendar, we have a pretty solid package of statistics for the United States. So, at first, we have preliminary data on GDP, where the second estimate should coincide with the first, showing a slowdown from 2.3% to 2.0%. After that, we have data on orders for durable goods, which are decreasing for the second month in a row, for the current period the decline is 0.8%. If the data are confirmed, then the dollar locally may be under pressure.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see, we see that there was a local decline just to a minimum on November 22 at the time of the opening of the European trading session, where we found a point of variable support earlier. In this case, the fulcrum is also felt, which is expressed in the stop and as a fact of a small rebound in the price. On the other hand, the general market sentiment is not yet low. A downward tact in the flat continues the scene.
By detailing the per minute movement, we see that almost from 00:00 hours the pair's mood is downward, but the main turn of transactions fell at 6:00-7:00 UTC time at the trading terminal.
In turn, traders continue to work on lowering, where price fixing is lower than at least November 22, replenishment of existing transactions may occur again.
Having a general picture of actions, it is possible to assume that the general downward mood will continue in the market, where I do not exclude a slowdown / pullback relative to the variable pivot point 1.2823. Thus, in the event of a breakdown of the low of November 22, we can expect a decline to the range level of 1.2770.
Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:
- Buy positions are considered in terms of local positions relative to a variable point. The main transactions will be considered in the event of another bounce from the level of 1.2770.
- Sales positions are already being conducted by traders with the topping process. Fixes are considered within the level of 1.2770. If we do not have deals. you can take a closer look at price fixing points lower than 1.2820.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on all the main time sections signal a predominant downward interest, which corresponds to the mood of the market.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(November 27 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The volatility of the current time is 38 points, which is still an extremely low value. It is likely to assume that, against the background of statistical data and the general informational background, acceleration of volatility may still occur.
Key levels
Resistance Zones: 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **.
Support areas: 1.2770 **; 1.2700 *; 1.2620; 1.2580 *; 1.2500 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2205 (+/- 10p.) *; 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
