Technical outlook:

The 4H chart of EUR/USD is presented for a clear wave count from recent swing highs at 1.2092 levels. As labelled here, 2 wave counts are coming out quite prominent: either a potential leading diagonal is in the making or an A-B-C corrective drop is underway. In both cases, the common point is that EUR/USD could be looking to produce one more low at 1.1500/10 levels before turning higher. Please note that the pair is expected to retrace higher towards at least 1.1900 levels before providing a short opportunity again. As an alternate count though, the pair could go all the way towards 1.2100 levels as well before dropping lower again. We shall be looking through long opportunities around 1.1500 levels in the short term and then looking at price action to turn lower again.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders might want to remain short from last week with risk at 1.1730 levels targeting 1.1500, while conservative traders would want to remain flat and look to go long lower around 1.1500.

USDX chart setups:

Technical outlook:

Again, a 4H chart view for the US dollar index is presented here for a clear wave count since it has made lows at 91.00 levels. It is probably presenting a highly probable 5 wave (impulse) rally through 95.30/50 levels as labelled here. An alternate count is not required, since guidelines for an impulse are meticulously followed here. We are expecting one more high around 95.30/50 levels before the 5th wave terminates and pushes the US Dollar Index lower, to produce a meaningful retracement. Support is strong towards the 91.00 level and prices should ideally remain above that going forward. Both sides trading opportunities should be offered around 95.30/50 levels: initially short and then turn long.

Trading plan:

Please remain flat for now and look to go short around 95.30/50 levels with risk above 96.00, targeting 93.00 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major fundamental events lined up for the day.

Good luck!