Bitcoin continues to experience difficulties with a breakout of a powerful resistance level, on which its further direction depends. If we do not manage to get above $46,700 in the near future, we can forget about consolidating above the 200-day moving average and the continuation of the bull market. Everyone will start rushing headlong from it, which will again lead to panic and a mobile sale of bitcoin. But we'll talk about this a little later.
Now about the current topic - bitcoin ETF, which can become almost the main driver of the cryptocurrency market growth, at least, I would like to believe it. Recently, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, inspired a wave of optimism in the cryptocurrency community but did not fully clarify anything. But the more the epic with the approval of the bitcoin ETF drags on, the more the funds that were specially created for this suffer. According to the latest data from CoinShares, investments in digital assets from Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, and other companies have been showing outflows for the fifth consecutive week. During this time, about $93 million was withdrawn from the funds. Tired of waiting, the money goes away. The appetite for cooling contrasts with the growing pile of applications for cryptocurrency ETFs, at least 18 applications that have been received by the SEC are currently known. That number rose significantly in three weeks after Gensler said regulators could be more open to bitcoin ETFs if it is based on futures rather than cryptocurrency itself. However, experts point out that even if the SEC finally approves the structure of the fund, one cannot be sure that the Bitcoin ETF will be in great demand.
Currently, there are quite a few other ways in which investors can buy and store bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, at least in the US, but all of them are already under the "cap" of the tax authorities - thanks to the recent $550 billion bill, which is a kind of deterrent for new cryptocurrency fans. Just recently, the US Senate passed the infrastructure bill, which will allow for broad oversight of virtual currencies and wallet owners. It was not possible to make the necessary amendments to the raw draft bill related to cryptocurrencies. The only hope is for changes that may be adopted in September. This makes it possible to exclude miners, crypto-software developers, and similar community members from the list of taxpayers.
Bitcoin funds and futures have been outflowing for the third month in the longest streak, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Much of this decline is due to a decrease in open interest in bitcoin futures. According to experts, the outflow could have been even greater if it were not for the fact that the 30 billion bitcoin trust - the largest crypto fund - does not allow the repurchase of shares.
A bit of cryptocurrency exoticism
The Iranian authorities decided to make a knight's move. Today, the Iranian National Tax Administration (INTA) has decided to follow the path of the United States and put forward a proposal to tax the digital asset exchanges operating in the country. To do this, it is necessary to legalize their activities, which is what the tax office calls for. Now the Iranian tax agency also wants to get user data on authorized exchanges. After looking at how the tax changes were cleverly implemented in the United States, the Iranian authorities also saw an opportunity to use exchange operations as a basis for taxation. INTA has called on Tehran's regulators to legalize cryptocurrency trading platforms. The statement says that the legalization of crypto exchanges is necessary for the collection of tax, and for this, everything must be legally fixed.
As for the technical picture of bitcoin, buyers need to break above the resistance of $46,700. Only this will allow them to gain the upper hand over the 200-day moving average and continue the growth of bitcoin to the highs of $52,000 and $58,000. If the bulls fail to take the above level, a repeat instant sale to the levels of $41,100, $36,700, and $33,300 is possible. But do not underestimate the cunning of the market. There were similar attempts to return the bull market in January-February 2018, after the largest bitcoin sell-off, and all these "bull markets" were engaged only in dragging out new "onlookers" who wanted to make some quick money, after which the largest drains took place. History will likely repeat itself this time as well, as everything points to just that.
