4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: -35.1917
The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday, January 7, was trading quite calmly, given the events that took place in Washington. And the US currency managed to rise in price even with such a fundamental background. However, we have long noted that markets have not responded to the foundation in recent months or even a year. Thus, it is not surprising that, when the supporters of Trump wanted to disrupt the approval of Joe Biden as the President, the American currency has risen in price even though it is constantly dropping. Thus, we continue to insist that the strengthening of the European currency is exclusively "speculative" in nature. Or the big players are driving the market for reasons they know. There are no other logical explanations for what has been happening in recent months. Thus, fixing quotes below the moving average line in the current conditions does not mean anything. Already today, the euro/dollar pair can turn up and resume the upward trend. At the time of writing, the quotes have moved away from 2.5-year highs by no more than 100 points. Thus, it is the bulls who continue to hold the initiative in their hands.
What happened in the States yesterday? Well, for a start, it is quite expected that two Democrats won the election to the Senate from the state of Georgia. Thus, it was the Democrats who formed the majority in the lower house of Congress and its upper house. That is, it is the Democrats who will have full control of everything in America over the next four years. Of course, the position of Democrats in the Senate is quite shaky. The balance of power is 50/50, meaning just one vote can change the decision of any issue. It should be understood that Democrats always vote "for" initiatives proposed by Democrats, and Republicans - for Republicans. However, this does not mean that never and under no circumstances will any Democrat vote "for" a proposal that comes from and benefits Republicans. Situations are different. In the Senate, to hold power, Democrats need every decision to be supported by all 50 senators from their party. Minus one vote - and the necessary decision will not be made.
After the results of the vote in Georgia became known, a group of supporters of Donald Trump broke into the Capitol, where the procedure for approving Joe Biden as president of the United States was just taking place. The protesters managed to suspend the trial for 4 hours at the cost of 4 lives of their comrades (if this word is applicable here). Intelligence agencies and the National Guard very quickly dispersed this bedlam in Washington and Congress resumed its meeting after 4 hours and approved the results of the elections in Georgia and Joe Biden as president of the country. Well, Donald Trump again got into a scandal. And well deserved. Let's start with the fact that Democrats immediately announced the impeachment procedure of Donald Trump since he is to blame for the attack on the Capitol. And this statement could be argued if Trump himself did not say that he was preparing to arrange a "hell of a fight" for the White House and did not announce mass rallies in Washington, especially "if the Democrats win the Senate". Thus, it was Trump who announced possible riots first. At his command, the extremists began to attack the Capitol. After that, the US president very quickly "changed his shoes" and asked the rioters through social networks to stop the violence and go home. However, no one went home, at least at the request of the president. Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter accounts of Trump were almost immediately blocked, as they contradict the policy of the companies. Recent posts and publications of the President have been deleted. First, Trump calls on demonstrators to leave the Capitol, second - he appeals to them with sympathy and complains that the Democrats stole his victory in the election. In general, Trump's accounts are frozen for at least 12 hours. According to representatives of the companies, if the violations are repeated, then Trump's accounts can be blocked forever.
Also, US Vice President Mike Pence turned away from Trump, who in an open letter to Congress said that he could not comply with the demands to cancel the election results. Earlier, there was information that Trump demanded that Pence block the election results. "I believe that my oath to defend the Constitution does not allow me to wield the unilateral authority to determine which electoral votes should be counted and which should not," Pence wrote in the letter. Earlier, via the same Twitter, Trump wrote that Pence has the right to reject the certification of states, which can bring him victory in the election.
The leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, also turned away from Trump. He has publicly rejected Trump's accusations that the election was rigged by Democrats. "Dozens of lawsuits were considered in courtrooms across our country. But the courts have rejected these claims again and again, including judges appointed by the president himself," McConnell said. Thus, no one wants to support Trump in his last days as president of the United States. Now, remember how pompously Trump took office 4 years ago. How he ruled the country for four years - not afraid to openly engage in conflicts, insult journalists, world leaders, Democrats, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, and so on. All this ends with the fact that Trump will almost be kicked out of his chair as president. It all ends with the fact that even Republicans don't want to support their President. And, of course, in 4 years, Trump will not be re-elected for any second term. For this scenario to be realized, Trump must be chosen as the candidate of the Republican Party. There is reason to believe that this will not happen. Considering what a crushing defeat the Republicans suffered in the 2020 election.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of January 8 is 83 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2192 and 1.2358. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top can signal a new round of upward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2207
S2 – 1.2085
S3 – 1.1963
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2329
R2 – 1.2451
R3 – 1.2573
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of correction. Thus, today it is recommended to open new long positions with a target of 1.2358 if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up or the price bounces off the moving average. It is recommended to open sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with targets of 1.2207 and 1.2192.
