4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -134.0885

The last trading day of the week, June 14, begins for the EUR/USD pair with a downward movement. Bears managed to seize the initiative and gain a foothold below the moving average line. This was facilitated by a weak report on industrial production in the eurozone, as well as the lack of new negative from overseas. However, traders can get a new batch of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from America today. Important retail sales reports for May will be published, as well as the consumer confidence index for June. Both indicators are quite important and are likely to cause a reaction of the foreign exchange market. At the same time, even if the reports are weak, we believe that the euro has fully exhausted its strengthening potential. This conclusion leads us to the lack of purchases of the euro on the last failed report from the US on inflation. Despite the fact that inflation in America slowed from 2.0% to 1.8%, this did not serve as a basis for traders to make new purchases of the euro. That is why we believe that today's reports, whatever they are, will not prevent the market from continuing to buy the US currency. The theme of the budget problems of Italy has no special impact on the movement of the pair. Perhaps if the European Union still applies penalties against this country, traders will regard it as a new serious problem of the EU, but so far this has not happened.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1261

S2 – 1.1230

S3 – 1.1200

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1292

R2 – 1.1322

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed below the moving average line. Thus, sales of the euro/dollar pair with targets at 1.1261 and 1.1230 are now recommended before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns to the top.

It is recommended to buy the euro currency after the bulls return the initiative to their hands and secure the pair above the moving, with the first targets at 1.1322 and 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.