Analysis of trades and trading tips for the euro

The first test of the 1.0911 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which within the context of the pair's downward trend clearly limited its upward potential. As a result, I refrained from buying the euro. A short while later, there was another test of 1.0911, coinciding with the MACD being in the overbought area, allowing scenario #2 for selling to materialize. However, at the time of writing, a significant sell-off has not yet occurred. Mixed statistics from the Eurozone prevented the euro from continuing to rise. In the second half of the day, the Empire Manufacturing Index for September is expected from the U.S., along with speeches from Fed representatives, including FOMC members Mary Daly and Adriana D. Kugler. Kugler is relatively new to the role, so it will be especially interesting to hear her remarks. A cautious tone from central bank representatives is likely to bolster the dollar. As for my intraday strategy, I plan to rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches the area of 1.0916 (the green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.0951. At 1.0951, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward move of the euro is unlikely today. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0897 price, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0916 and 1.0951.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0897 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0866, where I will exit the market. I will then immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 points from that level. Pressure on the pair will return if it fails to consolidate above the daily high. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.0916, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0897 and 1.0866.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the approximate price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the approximate price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – It is useful to consider the overbought and oversold zones for market entry.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are generally an ineffective strategy for intraday traders.