Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the levels I identified in the first half of the day, as traders did not rush events after a fairly strong and deep Friday dollar correction. But as you can see on the chart, the demand did not disappear; it just needed time to reload. The price test of 157.27 at the time of writing the review is already confirming Scenario #1 for buying the dollar. Let's see how this plays out, but the upward potential for the pair is much more evident than the chances of a downward correction. Ahead, we expect data on the Empire Manufacturing Index and speeches by Federal Reserve representatives John Williams and Patrick T. Harker. A bullish reaction to the statements may continue to grow the pair, which will lead to the realization of an entry to buy the dollar. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when I reach the entry point in the area of 157.72 (green line on the chart) in order to grow to the level of 158.67 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 158.67, I will exit the buys and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting a rise in the pair today as the upward trend develops further. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.19, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise towards the levels of 157.72 and 158.67.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it updates the level of 157.19 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 156.27. I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of unsuccessful attempts to reach the daily high and soft comments from Federal Reserve representatives. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.72, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline towards the levels of 157.19 and 156.27.

On the Chart:

Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.

Thick green line: Expected price where you can place Take Profit or independently fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.

Thick red line: Expected price where you can place Take Profit or independently fix profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.