empty
17.05.2024 04:45 PM
EUR/USD. May 17th. Bulls are satisfied and retreating

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.0892) and turned in favor of the US dollar. Thus, the process of falling toward the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.0837) began, which is currently too weak to be considered a wave. A rebound from the 1.0837 level will favor the euro and a return to the 1.0892 level. Consolidation below 1.0837 will allow traders to expect a continuation of the fall toward the support zone of 1.0785–1.0797.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation remains unchanged. The last downward wave ended on May 1st and failed to approach the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has already broken the previous wave's peak and has been forming for 12 days. Thus, a bullish trend has formed, with bulls attacking almost daily. I consider this trend rather weak and do not believe it will continue for long. However, the upward movement continued for a month, and the bears could not push the pair even to the lower line of the channel. Therefore, there are no signs of the bullish trend ending now.

The information background on Thursday once again let down the US dollar, although the market needed to see fit to react to all the information received. However, yesterday should be forgotten. Today, the final inflation report for April will be released in the Eurozone. The consumer price index is expected to slow to 2.4% year-on-year. Core inflation may slow to 2.7%, enough for the ECB to consider lowering rates next month. After a significant rise in the euro and a prolonged period of bull dominance, I naturally expect a decline. However, it is only about a corrective wave that will not break the bullish trend. The fact that the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy should support the bears.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the "wedge" and rose to the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0862. The last segment of the euro's growth looks ambiguous, so I am unsure about continuing the upward movement. However, sell signals are needed to expect a decline, which is currently absent. No emerging divergences were observed today, either. The growth process may continue towards the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.0959). Sell signals are better tracked on the hourly chart.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the last reporting week, speculators opened 3,409 long contracts and closed 7,958 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group turned bearish a couple of weeks ago, but now there is equilibrium between the bulls and bears. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 170 thousand, while the number of short contracts is 166 thousand. However, the situation will continue to shift in favor of the bears. In the second column, the number of short positions has increased from 140 thousand to 166 thousand over the last three months. Long positions decreased from 202 thousand to 170 thousand during the same period. The bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong background in information to resume the bullish trend. A series of poor reports from the US supported the euro, but more is needed for the long term.

News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).

The economic event calendar contains only one entry on May 17th. The information background's impact on trader sentiment today will be weak.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading tips:

Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.0892 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0837 and the lower line of the ascending corridor. These trades can now remain open. Buying the euro can be considered a rebound from the 1.0837 level or from the 1.0785–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0892.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El fortalecimiento del dólar podría dar un giro bajista al mercado de criptomonedas

Hoy, el mercado se centrará en la publicación del informe sobre la inflación en Estados Unidos, que se espera que muestre no solo que ha dejado de bajar, sino

Pati Gani 13:12 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.