empty
23.03.2023 10:28 AM
The pound's "smile" is the opposite of the dollar's smirk. GBP on the rise

This image is no longer relevant

The British currency experienced a stellar hour at one point, surging after rising consumer inflation in the UK and the Federal Reserve's decision on the key rate. However, experts fear that the pound's rise will be short-lived and unsustainable, although the latter is keen to hold on to its gains.

According to the latest report, UK consumer prices jumped by 10.4% in February compared with a year ago. This significantly exceeded January's figure of 10.1% y/y and market expectations of 9.9% y/y. However, analysts emphasize that this level is not the highest in recent months. According to experts, from October to December 2022, the inflation rate in the UK has been constantly growing. In this situation, experts pay attention to the largest gap (0.5% y/y) between the current indicator and the consensus forecast since 2009.

According to analysts, current reports from the UK indicate an increase in inflationary pressure. They believe that the Bank of England still has a long way to go in slowing down inflation. Market participants also have doubts about a steady decline in UK inflation. Currently, consumer prices are rising amid increasing labor and service costs, while the cost of raw materials and energy is gradually declining.

The Federal Reserve played a key role in strengthening the pound. As a result of the latest FOMC meeting, the US central bank raised rates by 25 bps. Against this backdrop, the sterling and the euro showed steady growth. According to analysts, the pound's initial reaction to the Fed's actions turned out to be positive, but in the future it may decline.

Experts and market participants consider the Fed's current decision as dovish. At the end of the meeting, the Fed said that they do not see the need for a permanent increase in interest rates. Instead, the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.

The Fed's new list of forecasts, which outlines potential interest rate changes in the coming months, calls for an additional rate hike before the end of this year. According to Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Group, the Fed aims to "defeat inflation, avoid a recession, and make sure the current financial system is safe." This is a difficult task as recently, the central bank had to slightly soften its position on inflation. The result of this decision was an increase in the interest rate by 25 bps. Experts admit that in the near future, additional policy firming will be required.

Market participants are currently set for four rate cuts in 2023, starting in June. However, these expectations could diverge from FOMC forecasts, analysts warn. Thus, the Fed and market participants' views do not coincide on key issues that relate to interest rate dynamics. Strengthening of such trends can provoke a strong volatility in financial markets, experts warn.

Against this background, the British currency rose against the US, reaching a maximum value of 1.2304. Subsequently, the GBP/USD pair returned to 1.2290. According to analysts, now the pair can reach records of December 2022 - January 2023, when sterling rose above 1.2400. At the same time, on Thursday, March 23, the GBP/USD pair traded in the range of 1.2310-1.2311, rushing to new highs.

This image is no longer relevant

The market is focused on the BoE's key rate hike of 25 bps to 4.25%. The meeting is scheduled for Thursday, March 23. Traders expect the UK macro data to play into the hands of the hawks, increasing the chances of supporters of a further rate hike. According to a number of analysts, in the near future, it is possible to increase rates by 50 bps. Such moods promote the pound's growth against the dollar.

In the current situation, sterling looks more vulnerable than the greenback. However, the pound refuses to give up and continues to boost its potential. At the same time, experts say that the greenback might strengthen its positions, if inflation in the U.S. remains high and economic growth is steady.

Recent stress in the global banking system adds more oil to the fire. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, these shocks have contributed to a tightening of financial conditions, i.e. provoked a rise in the cost of borrowing and complicated the process of obtaining loans. However, such reaction from banks is quite logical, because they reinsure themselves and seek to minimize risks. Against this background, experts fear that tougher financial conditions will slow down economic growth and increase the likelihood of a recession.

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
l Kolesnikova
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin enfrenta predicciones de caída. Trampas para los traders en el BTC

Actualmente, el mercado de criptomonedas experimenta cierta volatilidad, aunque muchos analistas anticipan una intensificación de la tormenta. Advierten a los traders sobre posibles trampas de precios en la dinámica

Larisa Kolesnikova 13:03 2025-07-24 UTC+2

15 % en lugar de 30 %: Trump y la UE están cerca de un acuerdo sobre aranceles

La UE y Estados Unidos finalmente se acercan a la línea de meta en las negociaciones sobre los aranceles comerciales: se está discutiendo una tarifa de compromiso del 15 %

Аlena Ivannitskaya 07:59 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Nuevo récord en Wall Street: el S&P 500 y el Nasdaq se disparan gracias a Alphabet

Los índices bursátiles estadounidenses S&P 500 y Nasdaq cerraron el lunes en máximos históricos. La razón fue un aumento del interés de los inversores en las acciones de los líderes

11:58 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Los índices estadounidenses irrumpen en el verano: sexto récord del S&P 500 y auge de los chips

El S&P 500 estableció su sexto récord. El Nasdaq mostró seis de los mejores resultados. Las acciones de empresas de chips se dispararon. Las acciones de PepsiCo y United Airlines

11:20 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Turbulencia del bitcoin: de $123 000 a $115 000. El criptomercado se mantiene en silencio

La primera criptomoneda volvió a demostrar maravillas de volatilidad: en un par de días el Bitcoin experimentó un ascenso hasta los $123 000 y una caída hasta los $115

Larisa Kolesnikova 11:47 2025-07-16 UTC+2

El Bitcoin supera los $120 000, el Nasdaq alcanza nuevos máximos: el mercado ansía impulso

El martes abre una serie de datos económicos clave y la temporada de informes. El Nasdaq muestra su séptimo cierre récord desde el 27 de junio. Las acciones de criptomonedas

11:59 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Boom bursátil: Nvidia supera los $4 billones, el Bitcoin no se queda atrás, Dow y S&P suben

Los índices suben: el Dow Jones creció un 0,43 %, el S&P 500 un 0,27 %, y el Nasdaq un 0,09 %. Nvidia cerró la sesión. Pronóstico positivo de Delta

10:33 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Trump vuelve al ataque: arancel del 50% sobre el cobre y nuevos golpes a China y la UE

Trump anunció aranceles del 50% sobre la importación de cobre, nuevos aranceles sobre semiconductores y productos farmacéuticos. Declaró que las negociaciones con la UE y China son exitosas. Japón

10:28 2025-07-09 UTC+2

De $4 a $100 mil por moneda – ¿por qué están despertando las carteras BTC «antiguas»?

Siete carteras de Bitcoin «antiguas», creadas en abril y mayo de 2011, se activaron repentinamente. En conjunto, movieron 70 000 BTC – el equivalente a $7,6 mil millones al tipo

Svetlana Radchenko 07:25 2025-07-07 UTC+2

S&P, Nasdaq y Dow suben al unísono: los mercados reaccionan a las sorpresas en el empleo y la política comercial

S&P 500 subió un 0,83%; Nasdaq subió un 1,02%; Dow subió un 0,77%. El crecimiento del empleo en EE. UU. superó las expectativas en junio. Tripadvisor sube tras el informe

11:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.