4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 5.9944
The British currency, as we said in the next article on the euro/dollar, also continued to move down in the last week and a half. However, it showed much less intense traffic all this time. Overall, the pound continues to remain close to its highs. In the article on the euro/dollar, we concluded that the long-term upward trend persists. For the pound/dollar pair, to make such a conclusion, you do not even need to go to the 24-hour timeframe. In the current illustration, the pair's maximum for the last 2.5 years is visible. However, in the UK itself, nothing particularly interesting is happening now. More precisely, it is better to say: nothing positive is happening for the British currency. The entire period when the British currency was actively rising in price. Someone may say that vaccination is taking place at a high rate in the Foggy Albion. However, it should be noted that in the United States, vaccination is taking place at a high rate. Vaccination in all developed countries is taking place at a high rate. Thus, this factor, from our point of view, although positive, has no impact on the pound sterling now. But the UK has plenty of geopolitical and economic problems. We listed the most important of them in yesterday's article. It makes no sense to repeat every day: the pound is at extremely high, unjustified levels for itself. It is heavily overbought and has risen in the past 11 months by as much (in the absence of positive news from the UK) as it fell in the previous four "Brexit" years.
Meanwhile, in the United States, while Joe Biden is leading the country for the second month, Donald Trump continues to bombard all kinds of lawsuits to annul the results of the 2020 election. The team of Donald Trump has not made any progress in this matter. Recently, the US Supreme Court rejected another three appeals that were filed by Trump's lawyers. Thus, the former president was not able to challenge, revise or cancel the results of the vote in any of the states of America. However, for example, the British newspaper The Guardian believes that Trump continues to keep the Republican Party under his control, which gives him a real opportunity to run for election in 2024. He was never impeached, so Trump has every right to be nominated for this post in four years. And considering about 70 million Americans who still cast their votes for the Republican, it is impossible to say that Trump will lose. Moreover, in 4 years, Trump can do the so-called "purge" in the ranks of the Republicans. Recall that at the last impeachment procedure, several Republican senators voted "yes". Trump later called them his enemies. Also, the leader of the Republican minority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, said earlier that there are no grounds for the impeachment of the former president and in general this is an unconstitutional decision, but Trump will still have to answer for the events of January 6. The former president accused recalcitrant Republicans of a lack of party loyalty. And Trump's future actions against the "traitors" in the Republican ranks may finally change one of the two main political forces in the United States. Already, many political scientists and experts are introducing the concept of "Trumpism". The Republican Party is regarded almost as a personal party of Trump, and when there were rumors that the former president could leave its ranks and create his party, opinion polls immediately showed that the new party could immediately become more popular than the old one. Many members of the Republican Party are already putting their political future ahead of the party's interests, as they fear Trump's wrath. Sociological studies also show that about two-thirds of the members of the Republican Party support Trump's opinion about the stolen elections, although not a single evidence of election fraud was presented, and Trump began talking about the fraud themselves six months before November 3. Thus, Trump has not presented any information to the public. He just consistently "hypnotizes" everyone who succumbs to the installation of "stolen elections". And if so, then Trump and all the Republicans were deceived by the vile Democrats. Thus, in the next four years, all attention in the United States will be focused not only on Joe Biden but also on Donald Trump, who will be the eternal shadow of the Democrat and will criticize his every move. Trump has already criticized the first month of Biden's rule, calling it "the most disastrous in the history of the United States," although, as usual, he did not say why and did not provide any arguments.
From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair is currently maintaining a downward trend. However, overcoming the moving average line will return the bulls to the market, and the pair can resume long-term growth. The situation with the growth of the yield of American treasuries has even less impact on the pound than on the euro, so this factor can be omitted altogether. The global factor of the imbalance between the US and UK money supply remains relevant. The dollar will continue to fall in price in 2021, but, unlike the euro, the pound is already heavily overbought, and the combination of all fundamental factors should not allow it to perform a strong growth. However, the "speculative" factor has not gone away either.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 108 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, March 10, therefore, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3783 and 1.3999. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will signal a new round of downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.3855
S2 – 1.3794
S3 – 1.3733
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.3916
R2 – 1.3977
R3 – 1.4038
Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair started a correction cycle on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open sell orders with targets of 1.3794 and 1.3783 if the price bounces off the moving average line. It is recommended to consider buy orders with targets of 1.3977 and 1.3999 if the price is fixed above the moving average.
