4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.
CCI: -58.4382
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, January 12. Most of the day, the euro/dollar pair stood in one place. However, the Heiken Ashi indicator painted only one bar in purple color in all that time. It is still unclear whether the current downward movement is just a correction or the beginning of a new downward trend? We have been waiting for a new trend to the south for a long time, however, it should be understood that market participants are a huge number of traders of all stripes and scales. If the mood of small traders can be understood, then the mood of major players, which drive the market, is much more difficult to understand. Usually, any pair moves under the influence of "foundation" and "macroeconomics". Occasionally, there is a "speculative movement" or a movement "on pure technology". Now we seem to be witnessing a "speculative" movement (if it hasn't already ended a couple of days ago). But the problem is that if the upward movement resumes, it turns out that the "speculative" factor will remain in action. We continue to note that in recent months there are no significant reasons for the fall of the US currency. Even the victory of Joe Biden in the election itself cannot be the reason for the two-month fall of the US dollar, especially if you consider the fact that before that the US currency had been declining for another 7 months.
It should also be noted that there is no news of the macroeconomic plan now. We have already talked about the Nonfarm Payrolls report several times. It was ignored, although it is not possible to call it weak or insignificant. However, the dollar rose when Nonfarm's failed miserably. And all the other news coming from overseas concerns exclusively the political sphere and the current/former US President Donald Trump, who finally decided to arrange a new talk show in his country called "The Second Impeachment". It seems that Trump set out to enter the history of the United States forever while being in its most priority section. For example, Trump may become the only president in the entire history of the United States who has been impeached twice. But for now, it's all lyrics. More interesting is that Donald Trump has imposed a state of emergency for two weeks in Washington. What is it? Security measures? Or are pro-Trump activists preparing a new action? Formally, Donald Trump explained this by saying that at the inauguration of Joe Biden on January 20, there may be riots again in the Capitol on January 6. Of course, the president of the United States delicately omitted the fact that it was he who provoked these riots through social networks, some of which banned him forever. But will the demonstrators go to Biden's inauguration voluntarily and independently or will they be "directed" there again? In any case, the security measures at this event will be extremely strict.
At the same time, the president himself believes that members of the ultra-left Antifa movement are to blame for the storming of the Capitol on January 6. White House sources said that in a private conversation between Donald Trump and House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, the president tried to "whitewash" himself. However, the Republican leader said that in the crowd there was a huge number of supporters of Trump himself, while representatives of Antifa were not visible. It is also reported that Trump again complained about the fake election results, and McCarthy harshly replied to him that the election was over and should stop.
In Congress, Donald Trump is considered guilty of inciting an uprising. Naturally, the Democrats initiated the impeachment process, who unanimously voted "for" the start of this procedure. The resolution says the president has put the country's security, democracy, and constitution at risk. Also, Trump "betrayed the credibility of himself as president". The document also says that Trump regularly made statements about "rigged elections" for months, however, he did not provide any evidence of his words. Moreover, all US courts have rejected Trump's claims for insufficient evidence. Trump has regularly said that it was he who won the election, provoking his supporters to illegal actions and rebellion. As a result, a group of rebels broke into the Capitol, disrupted a session of Congress, killed a police officer, and destroyed the interior. "Thus, Donald Trump himself guaranteed impeachment, trial, removal from office, and deprivation of the right to hold any honorary position in America," the resolution concludes. It is also reported that now the House Judiciary Committee must decide whether the charges are sufficient to start impeachment proceedings? There is little doubt that this committee will approve the resolution. Next, the House of Representatives will vote for the impeachment and you can also be sure to approve it. Simply because the majority in the lower house are Democrats. But then everything will depend on the Senate. And not just from the simple majority. 2/3 of senators must vote "for" the removal of Trump.
The Democrats also intended to remove Trump from his post with the help of Vice President Mike Pence, who has the opportunity and right to use the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which allows him to take the place of the president if he can no longer govern the country. However, the vice president has already made it clear that he is not going to use this opportunity. For Mike Pence, this step is not necessary. If he carries it out, he will have power in his hands for only a week. Why would he spoil relations with Trump for the sake of a week-long presidential term? Thus, the fate of Trump is still in the hands of Democrats, as well as in the hands of Republican senators, who are likely to save Trump from impeachment for the second time. All this gives us hope for a very fun coming week.
So far, the euro/dollar pair continues to move down, that is, the US dollar is getting more expensive. It is difficult to say what this is due to. If indeed with politics, it turns out that investors almost applauded the possible impeachment of Trump and his departure from the White House.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of January 13 is 85 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2106 and 1.2276. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal the resumption of a downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2085
S2 – 1.1963
S3 – 1.1841
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2207
R2 – 1.2329
R3 – 1.2451
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair started an upward correction within the downward trend. Thus, today it is recommended to open new short positions with a target of 1.2106 after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down or in the case of a price rebound from the moving average. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed back above the moving average with targets of 1.2276 and 1.2329.
