Forex Analysis & Reviews: 29.04.2019 - EURUSD: Despite the growth...

29.04.2019 11:11 AM

EURUSD: Despite the growth of the US economy, there are still problems with consumer and business spending

On Friday, the US dollar made another attempt to grow after the release of the report, which indicated that the US economy in the first quarter of 2019 grew at a high rate due to an increase in exports and investment in inventories. This allowed to resolve the problem associated with the slowdown in demand from consumers and companies.

However, the bears did not manage to stay at the new minimums, which led to a quick profit taking and a small upward correction of the euro by the end of the North American session.

According to the data of the US Department of Commerce and the first preliminary estimate, the US GDP in the 1st quarter of the current year grew immediately by 3.2% per annum, while economists had expected growth of only 2.5%, after 2.2% in the 4th quarter of year 2018.

As noted above, the main contribution was made due to large export growth, while imports gradually declined. Also, the growth of public spending and private investment added a few tenths to GDP. The main problem is a slower growth in consumer spending, as well as business, where a slowdown was noted in the first quarter. Thus, consumer spending in the 1st quarter increased by only 1.2% after rising 2.5% in the 4th quarter of 2018. The reduction in the main item of expenditure has affected large purchases and durable goods.

Also on Friday, it became known that consumers' assessment of the prospects for the American economy in April of this year has somewhat deteriorated. According to the University of Michigan, the final consumer sentiment index in April 2019 was 97.2 points, down from the March value of 98.4 points. The university noted that the average value of the index over the past 28 months is 97.2 points.

After the published data, a presentation was made by Economic Advisor to the USS President Larry Kudlow, who said that strong GDP data was provided by the current policy of Donald Trump, which in the future will further contribute to economic recovery.

Kudlow also drew attention to the slowdown in inflation, noting that its low level may show a decrease in the Fed's rates in the coming months. With regard to trade negotiations between the US and China, the presidential adviser remains cautiously optimistic.

The technical picture in the EURUSD pair has not changed significantly. Trading in the next few days will be conducted from the support range of 1.1115, where the bulls will try to build a new lower limit of the ascending channel. The main problem for buyers of risky assets will be the upper limit of the current side channel at 1.1180, a breakthrough of which will lead the trading tool to return to levels 1.1210 and 1.1240.

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*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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