empty
18.12.2024 03:57 AM
Overview of the GBP/USD Pair December 18; Central Bank Meetings Already Boost the Pound

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair traded higher on Monday and Tuesday. On Monday, there were no clear reasons or grounds for this increase, as the macroeconomic background from the UK and the US did not decisively support the pound or the dollar. Nevertheless, the British currency once again demonstrated a strong desire to rise. We believe that the pound's growth might be linked to the upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, the first of which is set to take place this evening. Let's analyze why the pound has risen and whether it will continue to climb.

On Tuesday morning, the UK released data on unemployment and wages. Some might consider unemployment the more important report, but that's not the case currently. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, and jobless claims came in below forecasts. These reports provided local support for the pound, but the wage report was more significant. Wages in the UK increased by 5.2%, including bonuses, and by 5.2%, excluding bonuses, significantly exceeding forecasts.

The BoE and its representatives have repeatedly expressed concerns about the high pace of wage growth, which fuels inflation. In this case, wages rose even more than expected. What does this suggest? Further inflation growth in the UK and, consequently, the BoE maintaining interest rates at their peak levels for longer than previously anticipated. This factor likely supported the pound.

However, we don't believe this support will be long-lasting. The slower the BoE is to lower rates now, the faster it may need to reduce them later. Nevertheless, the pound continues to seize opportunities to demonstrate its resilience against the dollar.

As for the Fed meeting, the outcome seems relatively predictable. The Fed will likely lower rates by another 0.25% this evening, but this decision can be considered "conditionally hawkish." Recall that the Fed's official stance, as Jerome Powell reiterates, is that "there's no need to rush." Therefore, even today's monetary policy easing does not imply a shift toward more dovish sentiment within the Fed. In 2025, the Fed may take pauses in rate adjustments or wait to see how Donald Trump's potential presidency impacts global trade wars. Trade wars are no secret; they tend to lead to higher tariffs and, consequently, rising prices. Higher prices mean increased inflation, which the Fed aims to combat. Thus, the Fed's rate cuts might be less substantial than anticipated. Or, more accurately, less than what the market has been pricing since early 2024.

From this perspective, the dollar still holds excellent growth potential because the market has priced in a rate reduction of roughly 3%, which may not materialize. The pound, meanwhile, has not yet broken through the 1.2610 level on its first attempt, but this doesn't mean further attempts won't follow.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 83 pips, which is classified as "average" for this currency pair. On Wednesday, December 18, we expect movement within the range of 1.2631 to 1.2797. The higher linear regression channel is pointing downward, signaling a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area again, but the pound may resume its downward trend. Any oversold signal in a bearish trend typically only indicates a correction.

Key Support Levels:

  • S1 – 1.2573
  • S2 – 1.2451

Key Resistance Levels:

  • R1 – 1.2695
  • R2 – 1.2817
  • R3 – 1.2939

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair maintains a bearish trend but continues to correct upward. We still do not recommend long positions, as we believe the market has already priced in all potential growth factors for the British currency multiple times.

If you trade using "pure" technical analysis, long positions are possible with targets at 1.2797 and 1.2817, provided the price consolidates above the moving average line. Short positions are currently more relevant, with targets at 1.2573 and 1.2540, but they require fresh consolidation below the moving average line to confirm the trend.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O iene continua a se fortalecer

O dólar recebeu um impulso significativo na quinta-feira após a divulgação da segunda estimativa do PIB para o quarto trimestre, que relatou uma taxa de crescimento econômico de 2,3%. Ainda

Kuvat Raharjo 17:52 2025-02-28 UTC+2

Visão geral do par EUR/USD - 28 de fevereiro: a União Europeia aguarda um novo revés econômico

O par EUR/USD manteve seu padrão de movimento na quinta-feira, continuando a ser negociado dentro de um canal lateral no gráfico horário durante a maior parte do dia. Nem mesmo

Paolo Greco 17:52 2025-02-28 UTC+2

Atualmente o dólar está enfrentando grandes desafios no momento

As preocupações com o estado da economia dos EUA estão dificultando o sentimento baixista no mercado para o par EUR/USD. Segundo o Danske Bank, o principal par de moedas carece

Marek Petkovich 17:28 2025-02-28 UTC+2

O mercado de ações desiste

Problemas nunca vêm sozinhos. O S&P 500 despencou para os níveis mais baixos desde meados de janeiro, à medida que Donald Trump reacendeu as ameaças tarifárias. Primeiro, dados econômicos negativos

Marek Petkovich 15:25 2025-02-28 UTC+2

USD/CAD: Será que o par continuará sua recuperação perto das máximas de várias semanas?

O par USD/CAD permanece perto das máximas de várias semanas, estendendo seu impulso positivo pelo sexto dia consecutivo, apoiado por um rompimento acima da Média Móvel Simples de 50 dias

Irina Yanina 15:05 2025-02-28 UTC+2

O dólar está seguindo uma trajetória já conhecida

Para prever o futuro, é essencial analisar o passado. O comportamento do dólar americano após as eleições presidenciais de novembro lembra muito seus movimentos durante o período de transição

Marek Petkovich 19:51 2025-02-27 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 27 de fevereiro? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

O calendário macroeconômico de quinta-feira está relativamente leve, mas alguns relatórios importantes serão divulgados hoje. A Alemanha, o Reino Unido e a zona do euro devem publicar dados econômicos menores

Paolo Greco 16:16 2025-02-27 UTC+2

O mercado não tem impulso

O relatório de ganhos da NVIDIA não trouxe o impulso necessário, e o S&P 500 despencou após um rali inicial. Enquanto isso, a ameaça de Donald Trump de impor tarifas

Marek Petkovich 14:52 2025-02-27 UTC+2

AUD/JPY: Análise e previsão

O par AUD/JPY tenta se manter ligeiramente acima do nível de 94,00, sua mínima desde setembro de 2024. Os investidores estão cada vez mais confiantes de que o Banco

Irina Yanina 13:27 2025-02-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro segue em queda nesta sessão, atingindo uma mínima de duas semanas em torno de $2.880. Um modesto aumento nos rendimentos dos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA fortalece

Irina Yanina 13:18 2025-02-27 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.