During a televised press conference on Monday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson praised the country's success in breaking out of the previously imposed lockdown, planning a way to lift the restrictions right through mid-summer 2021.

Relaxation Timetable:

March 29

- Two households or six people from more than two households are allowed to meet outdoors

- Outdoor sports such as tennis, golf, grassroots football, resume.

- Removal of the "Stay at home" requirement.

April 5

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will provide an update on international travel.

April 12

- Non-essential retail and personal care businesses such as hair salons, nail salons, libraries, museums, and other public buildings will reopen.

- Most of the outdoor attractions, including zoos and theme parks, will reopen.

- Indoor leisure facilities such as gyms and pools will reopen.

- Hospitality will reopen for outdoor service only.

- Attendance at weddings and commemorations increases from 6 to 15.

April 15

The government's goal is to vaccinate all citizens over the age of 50.

May 17

- The earliest date from which overseas travel can be resumed.

- Most of the rules for outdoor communication will be lifted, but gatherings of more than 30 people in parks and gardens remain illegal.

- Indoor meetings are only allowed for two households 6 people from more than two families.

- Bed and breakfast hotels are reopening.

- Entertainment facilities such as cinemas and children's playgrounds will be opened.

- Indoor shows and sporting events can host up to 1,000 people or will be half full.

- Outdoor areas and sporting events can host 4,000 people or be half full. The largest outdoor areas, such as football stadiums, can hold 10,000 people or be a quarter full.

- Up to 30 people can attend weddings, receptions, wakes, funerals, and other life events such as baptism and christenings.

Until June 21

- Review for a report on whether Covid status certification could play a role in reducing restrictions on social contacts and getting the economy back on track.

- Review for reporting on social distancing measures, including using face masks, working from home.

Presumably from June 21

- All restrictions on social contacts should be removed.

- Final sectors of the economy, such as nightclubs, were allowed to reopen.

- Restrictions on holding major events and performances have been lifted.

- The restrictions on attending weddings and other life events have been removed.

This plan against restrictive measures is remarkable, everything is described in detail, it is immediately clear that everything is on the case. British citizens appreciated the government's eagerness to ease restrictive measures, so they staged massive outings on the very first day, gathered in groups of 100 people and even a massive brawl highlighted the end of a long lockdown.

You can understand people, they stayed at home, tired of everything, and then the long-awaited mitigation, everyone immediately forgets about control, masks, distancing. But whether this will lead to new outbreaks of infections, with the new strain, which Boris Johnson mentioned in his press conference, worries the government and medical services.

Let's hope that everything goes on schedule, and the new wave of infections will be just a theory.

Now we will talk about a successful development scenario, since we are interested in the economy. The coronavirus did not just hit retail, it literally smashed it into trash, and if we talk about bars, pubs, restaurants, the tourism industry, then it literally does not exist. If we analyze the plan to mitigate sanitary measures, then 2021 will not be an era of enlightenment for the affected areas, but rather the dismantling of ruins.

In all this snowball, which will melt in a few years at best, many people forget about another important problem - adaptation after Brexit. For the moment, we will not consider all areas of cooperation between the UK and the EU, we will only talk about trade. So, it is no secret that small businesses in Britain simply will not cope with the new requirements for interaction with the European Union and will be out of work and, as a result, go bankrupt. At the same time, the current situation in the form of Brexit and widespread lockdowns led to the fact that the UK has set an anti-record in foreign trade over the past 20 years.

According to the Food and Drink Federation (FDF), the volume of cheese exports fell in January from £45 million to £7 million on an annual basis. Whisky exports fell from 105 million to 40 million, while chocolate exports sank 68%, from 41.4 million to 13 million. Export of goods such as Scottish salmon and beef almost completely stopped, falling by 98% and 92%, respectively. Food exports to Germany decreased by 85%, while exports to Italy decreased by 81%.

The numbers are terrible, and we only see the tip of the iceberg, draw your own conclusions.

What is happening in the market in terms of technical analysis?

The pound sterling (GBP/USD), for all its speculative behavior, one can understand that things are still bad. The corrective move from the peak of the medium-term trend of 1.4224, on a scale of 4%, is only a small part of the possible weakening of the pound.

If even a small share of understanding of what is happening on the market comes, then we will see an early change in the medium-term trend, and even an elongated correction will not be enough to cool the overheated pound sterling from speculation.

As for the euro, there is already an elongated correction from the peak of the medium-term trend, where, given the recent decline, we are not so far from the main support level of 1.1650. The trend reversal will occur after the breakdown of the level of 1.1650 and consolidation below 1.1600, but it is too early to conclude, we are working on local operations in the direction of the correction.

Expectations and prospects

The flow of information will continue to affect speculative activity, so we are closely monitoring hot topics: COVID, restrictive measures, the UK/EU business barometer.

Analyzing the current EUR/USD trading chart, one can see that the stagnation at 1.1760/1.1805, which was the focus of attention of speculators, was broken by them during the start of the European session.

The surge in activity outgoing from the range was slightly more than 30 points, which is practically the width of the traversed range. In this situation, the most important point is the fact that the correction has been prolonged again, which means that the downward interest, as before, is relevant among traders.

Holding the price below 1.1750 increases the chances of sellers to weaken the euro towards the support level of 1.1650.

What is happening on the EUR/USD chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?

Analyzing different sectors of time frames, we see that technical instruments on the minute, hourly, and daily time frames are focused on the downward trend, signaling a sell.

In terms of market dynamics, a decline in volatility is recorded, but if we take into account the recent accumulation in the 1.1760/1.1805 range, then everything will fall into place. The coefficient of speculative transactions grows sharply, just at the stage of the breakdown of the accumulation process.

Analyzing the GBP/USD chart, one can see that the surge in speculations during the previous day ended with accumulation within the range of the pivot point of 1.3750, which is currently putting pressure on sellers.

For the growth of the volume of short positions to occur, the quotes must remain below 1.3750 in a four-hour period. This step will quite possibly return the quotes to the base of the correction at 1.3670, and there may already be talk of prolongation.

Until coordinates 1.3750 have fallen, we should not exclude variable bumpiness within 50 points above the level.

What is happening on the GBP/USD chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?

Analyzing different sectors of time frames, we see that technical instruments signal a sell on the hourly and daily periods, which corresponds to the intentions to resume the corrective course. Minute intervals have a variable signal (buy/sell) due to price fluctuations along the 1.3750 coordinate.

In terms of market dynamics, a deceleration of about 15% relative to the average level is recorded, but in the event of a breakdown of the 1.3750 coordinate, a round of acceleration may occur.