At the end of last week, the euro / dollar currency pair showed volatility close to the average daily, and as a result, a correctional phase was made. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the fulcrum, reflected from the psychological level of 1.1000, led to the formation of a long-awaited correction, returning us to the limits of the previously formed cluster of 1.1120 / 1.1155. As discussed in the previous review, traders who had short positions were insured, going into partial and full profit taking, in case the corrective move was delayed, which is what happened after the fact. Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the prolonged beat of "Impulse" has moved into the "Correction" phase, which was not a surprise for market participants. The global downward trend and theories of its further formation remain in the minds of traders.
The news background by the end of last week had a package of statistical data from the United States, where the focus was, of course, the report of the Ministry of Labor. Considering the report in general terms, we see that no fundamental changes have occurred, the unemployment rate remained, 3.7%, the average hourly wage, as expected, accelerated from 3.1% to 3.2%. But the data on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector was revised for the worse, with new jobs at 148K compared to the forecast of 160K. The news background certainly played a role in the formation of the correction phase, although it was not so strong, but the overheating of short positions was clearly felt.
We return to the information background, and here, as always, floundering everything in the same puddle called Brexit. This time, Britain's divorce minister Stephen Barkley said that the European Union should give its main negotiator, Michelle Barnier, a mandate to review the agreement. I recall that the Head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has repeatedly put in place British politicians, saying that the current agreement is the best option out of all available options, and there will be no further changes.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, data on business activity in Europe has already been released, where everything remained at the same level of 51.5, while the services sector dipped to an insignificant share: 53.3 ---> 53.2. In the afternoon, there will be a package of statistics for the United States, where they expect fairly good data on business activity in the services sector.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the corrective move led us to the upper savings line of 1.1120 / 1.1155, which reflects a 100% recovery from the decline of last week. In turn, most traders take a position outside the market, analyzing quotes behavior and the possible end of the correction phase.
It is likely to assume the formation of a primary fluctuation within 1,1120 / 1,1155, where it is worth carefully analyzing the quotation behavior and fixing points, since based on this, the long-range price movement will be understood.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:
- For the positions to buy, those traders who wanted to ride on the correction phase, have already fixed or close to this. Further move will be considered in the case of price fixing 1.1165.
- There are no sell positions at the moment. Consideration will resume in case of price fixing lower than 1.1120-1.1100.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector, we see that the indicators in the short and intraday perspective unanimously signal purchases due to the current correction phase. The medium-term outlook still holds downward interest, citing an earlier move.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(August 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 51 points, which is almost equal to the daily average. In case of a slowdown against the background of a cluster, it is likely to assume a fluctuation of already relatively developed volatility.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1180 *; 1,1300 **; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1,1100 **; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
**** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment.
