4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 44p - 22p - 81p - 28p - 26p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 40p (44p).

The strengthening of the European currency began early in the morning of July 10th. It was caused solely by profit taking by bears on dollar positions opened earlier. In anticipation of Jerome Powell's speech to the Congressional Financial Services Committee, traders decided not to take risks and close some of their shorts. The likelihood that Powell will adhere to a "dovish" rhetoric was present. However, as it became known just an hour ago, the dovish rhetoric, though preserved in Powell's speech, was nothing new to the markets and was not communicated to Congress. The key points of his speech were "economic uncertainty has increased in recent months," "the slowdown in the growth of the economies of some large countries may affect the economy of the United States," "requires resolution of the issue of US trade policy," "weak inflation may take longer than we (the Fed) expect now." However, Powell notes, the baseline scenario still assumes steady growth and a strong labor market. Thus, in brief, Powell and the Federal Reserve are afraid of various factors that may have a negative impact on the US economy, but at the same time, in their absence, steady economic growth will continue. We believe that the speech of the Fed chief can be regarded as moderately dovish. No way weaker than after the last Fed meeting. Thus, new grounds for suggesting a reduction in the key rate did not appear in July, and the morning fears of traders were in vain. It facilitates the analysis of the euro/dollar currency pair that the fact now is the price has fulfilled a critical line. Accordingly, a price rebound from it will trigger a resumption of a downward trend, which will be logical from a fundamental perspective. Overcoming the line Kijun-sen will make it possible to continue the pair's corrective growth, which can be purely technical.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has begun to be adjusted. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for a rebound from the Kijun-sen line and sell the pair with targets at 1.1209 and 1.1165.

It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair in small lots not earlier than when the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line with the first target level of 1,1289 and the Senkou Span B line.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.