Analysis of trades and tips for trading the Japanese yen

There were no tests at the levels I outlined in the first half of the day. As a result, I didn't find suitable entry points into the market. A statement by one of the Bank of Japan representatives strengthened the yen's position, but volatility significantly decreased during European trading, and there were objective reasons for this. Upcoming, we have data on the U.S. Consumer Price Index for August, as well as the core CPI (excluding food and energy prices). Only a sharp rise in these figures will halt the dollar's recent downward trend against the Japanese yen. If the data matches economists' forecasts, USD/JPY is likely to continue falling. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario #1, despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong directional movement in the pair.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 141.78 (green line on the chart) with a target of 143.03 (thicker green line on the chart). At 143.03, I will exit my long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction. You can expect the pair to rise today after strong U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 141.29 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will reduce the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 141.78 and 143.03.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today once the 141.29 level (red line on the chart) is breached, leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 140.21, where I will exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point move from that level. Selling pressure on the pair will return if U.S. data is weak. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 141.78 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 141.29 and 140.21.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.