Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

A signal to buy emerged after GBP/USD hit 1.3435. However, there was no increase because the MACD line being far from zero limited the upside potential of the pair. Even good data on manufacturing activity did not help as the market is bearish because of the current military events. Thus, it was no surprise that the pair fell 30 pips to 1.3404. During that time, the MACD line was below zero, so the sell signal provoked another dip of about 50 pips.

GBP/USD rose on Tuesday morning because business activity in the UK manufacturing sector was better than expected. But pressure returned in the afternoon, when the US reported a strong ISM manufacturing index.

Bank of England members Silvana Tenreyro and John Cunliffe will deliver a speech today, and their statements could prompt another rally in pound provided that it hints at more aggressive interest rate hikes in the near future. Then, in the afternoon, strong US employment report from ADP will raise demand for dollar. The speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also be decisive as it could hint what the central bank plans for the March meeting.

For long positions:

Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.3329 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3401 (thicker green line on the chart). Hawkish statements from Bank of England representatives will prompt a rally this Wednesday morning. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3286, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3329 and 1.3401.

For short positions:

Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.3286 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.3235. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a bearish signal to risky assets, but before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.3329, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3286 and 1.3235.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.