Here are the details of the economic calendar from June 29:
The economic calendar had the data on the UK lending market, where there is characteristic progress.
- The volume of mortgage lending for May rose from 3.03 billion pounds to 6.58 billion pounds against the forecast of 4.58 billion pounds.
- The number of approved mortgage loans for May rose from 86.90 thousand to 87.55 thousand.
- The volume of consumer lending by the Bank of England for May rose by 280 million pounds against the forecast of 240 million pounds.
The volume of mortgage lending is net lending secured by housing, includes temporary loans provided by banks and other special lenders. The growth of the indicator is considered a positive signal that can lead to the strengthening of the national currency.
The number of approved mortgages is the number of permits for obtaining a mortgage. This indicator is considered an important indicator of the housing market. The growth of mortgage loans signals a good state of the housing market, and this stimulates overall economic growth.
The volume of consumer lending is an indicator for individuals who have taken out a consumer loan. This indicator reflects how much consumers can afford large purchases. This is a kind of indicator of the state of the economy.
Based on the obtained results, the data on the UK lending market turned out to be significantly better than expected. This led to a local slowdown in the decline of the British currency during the publication of statistics.
The effect of statistical data on the trading chart is observed in the period 9:00-9:45 UTC+00.
Analysis of trading charts from June 29:
The EUR/USD pair still managed to change the swing cycle after hovering around the side channel of 1.1900/1.1975, eventually breaking through the lower border. The recovery process relative to the correction course of June 21-23 reached the level of 1.1877, which is about 75%.
A price recovery by more than 60% relative to the recent correction signals a high chance of returning the quote to its previous trajectory.
In this case, the initial trajectory is considered to be descending, and the correction is a movement from 1.1847 (June 21) to 1.1970 (June 23).
The GBP/USD pair extended the downward movement to new levels, which leads to a recovery relative to the corrective movement by about 85%.
The volume of short positions continues to grow, which indicates a high chance of sellers to update the local low (1.3785) of June 21.
Short positions or Short means positions to sell in anticipation of a decline in the value of the asset.
In our case, we are talking about building up positions to sell the pound sterling in anticipation of its further weakening.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 30, 2021
Today, the final data on the UK GDP for the first quarter was already published, where the data coincided with the previous estimate, reflecting an economic decline of 6.1% in annual terms.
* GDP is a gross domestic product report prepared by the National Statistics Office, which reflects the total volume of all goods and services produced in the United Kingdom. This indicator is considered an indicator of the overall economy of the country. GDP growth is a positive signal for the national currency, while a decline in GDP can lead to a prolonged weakening of the national currency.
Europe's preliminary inflation data will be published at 9:00 Universal time, where consumer prices are expected to fall from 2.0% to 1.9%.
* The consumer price index is prepared by the Statistical Service of the European Union (Eurostat), which determines the change in prices of the selected basket of goods and services for a given period. This indicator is considered a key indicator for assessing inflation.
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, the growth in inflation is a positive signal for the national currency, but when consumer prices rise faster than forecasts, this is considered not the best signal.
In our case, we have a decline in inflation based on the forecast, but considering the earlier growth, this may not be the worst result for the euro.
The ADP report on US employment in the private sector for June will be published at 12:15 Universal time, which predicts an increase of 600 thousand new jobs.
* The ADP employment report shows the change in the number of employees in the United States. The growth of the indicator has a positive effect on the unemployment rate in the country, as well as on consumer activity, which in turn has an impact on economic growth.
Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see the consolidation stage of versatile Doji candles, which signals a high level of uncertainty in the market. The stagnation is expressed in the range of 1.1890/1.1913, which may lead to a subsequent acceleration by the time the price goes beyond the set borders.
Let's demonstrate the recommendation into trading signals:
Buy positions will be considered if the price holds above the level of 1.1915.
Sell positions will be considered if the price holds below the level of 1.1875.
* Doji is a type of candle with a very small body or its absence, with quite large shadows. Candlesticks of this type say a lot, starting with the fact that there is no movement in the market, ending with the fact that there is so-called market uncertainty.
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it shows that the downward interest is still relevant among traders, but the quote must stay below the local low (1.3785) of June 21 for a significant change in the market to occur. This step will not just prolong the downward trend, but a reversal will hit a fifteen-month medium-term upward trend.
