Yesterday's economic calendar had important statistics for Europe, which were won back by speculators immediately.
Here's the details for the economic calendar on April 12:
Europe released its data on the volume of retail sales, where the decline was expected to slow down from -6.4% to -5.4%, which would not be so bad. But as a result, the previous figure was revised for the better, namely from -6.4% to -5.2%. At the same time, the current level was -2.9%, which is noticeably better than the forecast.
What is retail sales?
Retail sales are published by the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), which analyzes changes in retail sales and is the main indicator of consumer spending. An increase in this indicator can lead to a strengthening of the national currency, while a decline leads to a weakening of the national currency.
The Euro currency immediately reacted to the flow of statistical data with a local growth of 40 points, which could definitely earn us a profit.
The UK and the US, in turn, did not publish any significant statistics.
Analysis of trading charts from April 12:
The Euro currency (EUR/USD) managed to show local activity on Monday, aimed at an upward move from the variable support point of 1.1870. Studying the coordinates of 1.1870 in detail, it can be seen that the area of 1.1860/1.1870 has repeatedly served as a support in history, which led to a natural price rebound.
The trading recommendation of April 12 considered two possible development scenarios at once, where the main one was the breakdown of the level of 1.1860, which could lead to the resumption of the corrective course from the high of the medium-term trend. However, the price failed to break through the level of 1.1860, which means that sell positions were not opened.
An alternative scenario of the market development was the price rebound from the area of 1.1860, where the best trading solution appeared – buy signal, considering the European statistical data (retail sales volume).
Meanwhile, the British currency (GBP/USD) managed to show a natural basis associated with the base area of the correction course of 1.3669, where there was an immediate reduction in the volume of short positions and an increase in the volume of long positions.
All the results were seen the form of a speculative upward spiral on the trading chart.
Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 13, 2021
Today, the United Kingdom has already published its volume of industrial production, where the decline slowed down from -4.3% to -3.5%, which is noticeably ahead of forecasts.
It is worth noting that the previous figure was revised from -4.9% to -4.3%.
What is industrial production data?
Industrial production data is prepared by the UK Office for National Statistics and reflects the production of factories and mines in the country. This indicator attracts special attention from traders, as it is the main indicator of the strength of the manufacturing sector.
The growth of this indicator leads to the strengthening of the national currency.
During the publication of UK statistics, the value of the pound locally strengthened by about 25 points.
In turn, the United States is expected to release its inflation data during the US trading session, where its level is expected to increase from 1.7% to 2.5%, which is ahead of all the ambitious forecasts.
From the viewpoint of fundamental analysis, inflation growth is a positive factor for the national currency, but when the growth rate exceeds expectations, the opposite situation may occur. This will lead to a panic in the market among investors who will be concerned about a possible change in the Fed's monetary policy.
Due to the fact that the case is not standard, one should hedge himself at the time of the publication of US statistical data, close transactions or place a Stop Loss order.
USA 12:30 Universal time - inflation data
Looking at the current trading chart of EUR/USD, it shows that a sideways movement was formed within the borders of 1.1860/1.1920 (current quotes moves within it) due to the amplitude fluctuation from April 7 to April 12.
We can assume that the indicated borders will still be relevant among traders for some time, where both the method of trading on a rebound from the specified borders, and the method of breaking through a particular border of the range can be applied.
As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, it can be seen that traders are all focused on a rebound from the 1.3669 base area, but the quote has already overcome the level of more than 100 points. So if we consider the next buy positions, then it is worth waiting for the price to hold above the level of 1.3785, which could open the path towards 1.3850.
The prolongation of the correctional course from the high of the medium-term trend is still the main forecast, but it is necessary for the quote to settle below the level of 1.3650 in the H4 chart.
