In anticipation of Brexit - what could be on October 2019 with the movement #USDX , EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY s - a comprehensive analysis (the proportion of these instruments in calculating the dollar index is 83.1%)
Minor operational scale (Daily time frame)
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US dollar Index
On October 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :
- resistance level of 99.46 (local maximum);
- support level of 99.10 (control line UTL Minor operational scale fork).
In case of updating the local maximum 99.46, the upward movement of the dollar index can continue to the goals - control line UTL Minuette (99.65) - warning lines - UWL38.2 (99.85) - UWL61.8 (100.35) - UWL100.0 (101.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
If #USDX would be below the reference line UTL (support level of 99.10) Minor operational scale fork, then it will be possible to develop a downward movement of the instrument to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (98.60 - 98.25 - 97.95) with a view to achieving SSL Minor initial line (97.65) and the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (97.35) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The markup of #USDX motion options on October 2019 is shown in the animated chart.
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Euro vs US dollar
The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD on October 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :
- resistance level of 1.0950 (the initial line of SSL Minuette operating scale fork);
- support level of 1.0880 (control line LTL Minuette operational scale fork).
In case of breakdown of the LTL Minuette control line (support level of 1.0880), the downward movement of the single European currency will continue to the warning lines UWL38.2 (1.0850) and UWL61.8 (1.0790) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
If EUR / USD returns above the initial SSL line (resistance level of 1.0950) of the Minuette operational scale, the upward movement of this currency instrument can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1010 - 1.1050 - 1.1090) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the Median Line (1.1150) of the Minor operating scale fork.
The details of the EUR / USD movement options for October 2019 are shown in the animated chart.
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Great Britain pound vs US dollar
The development of Her Majesty's currency movement GBP / USD in October 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :
- resistance level of 1.2330 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minor operational scale fork);
- support level of 1.2280 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork).
In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2280, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2280 - 1.2185 - 1.2093) and the equilibrium zone (1.2240 - 1.2140 - 1.2040) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the minimums (1.2017 - 1.1958)
If a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2330 takes place, then the development of the GBP / USD movement will begin to occur in the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor (1.2330 - 1.2450 - 1.2582) with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.2690) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale fork.
The details of the GBP / USD movement on October 2019 can be seen in the animated chart.
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US dollar vs Japanese yen
Meanwhile, the development of the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY on October 2019 will continue to be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (107.25 - 108.15 - 109.10) of Minuette operational scale fork. The details of the movement inside this channel are presented in the animated chart.
The breakdown of the resistance level of 109.10 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette operational scale will confirm that further the movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun", which will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (109.10 - 110.40 - 111.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 109.10), the downward movement of USD / JPY will be directed to the control line LTL (105.65) of the Minor operational scale fork and the start line SSL (105.25) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on October 2019 in the animated chart.
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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").
The formula for calculating the dollar index :
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6% ;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.
The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.
