4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 36p - 57p - 61p - 44p - 44p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 48p (52p).

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, March 18, continues the weak upward movement, which is not grounded fundamentally. This week, a meeting of the Fed will take place and many experts are already discussing the possible rhetoric of the monetary committee. However, one can hardly say that the euro has been growing in the last 10 days due to negative market expectations regarding the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. The fact that the American regulator is unlikely to take a hawkish position in March for no reason is obvious. And his weak position, after several years of tightening policy, may put pressure on the US dollar. But this can happen on the day of the publication of the results of the meeting, the day after this event, the day before it, but not 10 days. Thus, we believe that traders continue to be based on technical factors and the absence of a fundamental basis for further euro decline now or in the near future. Although on the whole, in the long run, the euro position looks much worse than the US dollar position, which cannot but upset Donald Trump, who is beginning to put pressure on the European Union, urging him to actively negotiate with the States regarding trade conditions. The conflict with America is, first of all, unprofitable for the alliance, whose economy and so in recent years cannot cross the line when it does not need to be supported artificially. Plus, this should include Brexit, which only adds to the uncertainty. Thus, even the "pigeon" rhetoric of Fed representatives will not fundamentally change the balance of power between the euro and the dollar.

Trading recommendations:

The pair EUR / USD continues to move up. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions with targets at 1.1372 and 1.1393, since the tool initiative remains in the hands of the bulls.

Short positions are recommended to be considered if the bears manage to consolidate below the critical line. In this case, the trend will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.1250.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Redline and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.