فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 14.02.2019 - EUR USD: There is a chance for...

14.02.2019 10:49 AM

EUR USD: There is a chance for the euro to resume growth, but with good data on the eurozone economy

The European currency lost all its positions and fell against the US dollar on the basis of trading on Wednesday, February 13. Buyers failed to keep the pair at highs after the release of more than a weak report on industrial production in the euro area, which has seriously decreased.

A good report on inflation in the United States was able to support the dollar in the afternoon, which only increased the pressure on the pair before the meeting of US and Chinese trade representatives.

During yesterday's speech, American President Donald Trump once again repeated his words that he did not want to suspend the work of the US government, but he had not yet decided whether to sign an agreement on financing border security. The problem is that the agreement does not have a clear understanding of whether funding will be allocated for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico or not.

Yesterday, Harker, a representative of the Fed, also made a speech, saying that he expects one increase in interest rates in 2019 and another in 2020. Thus, it is clearly seen that the inclination of the Fed and its representatives to tighten monetary policy is decreasing more and more. Harker also said that it is necessary to continue to take a wait-and-see attitude, since the investment prospects are not as positive as last year, and the uncertainty has a negative impact on the economy.

The representative of the Fed said that he expects annual GDP growth rates slightly above 2% this year, followed by a slowdown to 2% in 2020.

The report on tax revenues to the federal budget in 2018 did not have a serious impact on the markets. Given that the report was published in the year of the amended tax law, which provides for benefits, the decline in budget revenues, along with strong economic growth and low unemployment, did not cause particular concerns among economists.

According to the US Treasury, federal budget revenues decreased by 0.4% to $ 3.33 trillion, while federal spending was at $ 4.2 trillion, up 4.4% from a year earlier. As a result, the US budget deficit amounted to $ 873 billion compared to $ 680.8 billion in the same period last year.

The main decline is due to low corporate tax and personal income tax rates. They were changed as part of the tax reform, which began in January 2018.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, euro buyers need the fastest possible return to the resistance level of 1.1290, only above which the demand for risky assets will increase, which will lead to an update of weekly highs around 1.1340. If the trade continues to be below the resistance of 1.1290, and the data for the euro area are worse than economists' forecasts, the EURUSD pair will continue to fall further, and the break of support 1.1250 will only increase pressure on it, with the main goal of updating the minimum of 1.1180.

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