GBP/USD

Long-term forecast- reversal above 1.70

The cable has been in an uptrend and paused its rally at 1.69 levels unable to cross the August 2009 high at 1.70 levels. The pair gave an upside breakout in the monthly charts and still trading above the breakout level. The economic growth in the UK sector gave an upbeat signal for the cable. Traders prefer the cable to buy on a dip compared to the euro. Next bull run will start above 1.7045 levels, aiming at 1.7325 as an initial target. On the down side, the cable has strong support at 1.6465 (200-month EMA). For the longer term view, bulls are in trouble phase only below this. If any case, the cable breaks the 1.6465 level, the steep fall will take the cable up to 1.6252, breaks below this, 1.5920 levels.

Monthly forecast-

The couple made minor support at 1.6693, breaks below this, it will correct to 1.6660. The bulls need to show their existence at 1.6660 levels, not to close below this. If bulls fail to hold 1.666 on a closing basis, the bears will tighten their grip up to 1.6554 and 1.6465 levels.

Support- 1.6465, resistance- 1.6921.

Weekly forecast- longs only above 1.6845.

In the daily chart, the cable was well managed to close above the 50-day SMA. In Asia's session today it is exactly holding the 50-day SMA (as of now). Until the cable closes above the descending upper trend line (purple), selling the rally will favor 1.666 as a possible target.

BUY ABOVE 1.6845, SELL BELOW 1.6780.

Intraday- cmp 1.6804.

If it breaks 1.6795 (50-day SMA), it can look back up to 1.6780 levels. Safe traders can sell below 1.6780 levels for 1.6760, 1.6723 and 1.67. On the upside, traders can buy above 1.6845 levels for 1.6880 and 1.69 levels.