Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

A signal to sell emerged after EUR/USD hit 1.1031. Coincidentally, the MACD line was starting to move below zero, so the pair fell by about 30 pips. It went all the way to 1.1011. Meanwhile, long positions led to losses because pressure on the euro continued further.

Investor confidence in the Euro area turned out to be much worse than expected, leading to a sharp sell-off in EUR/USD yesterday morning. Meanwhile, the volume of manufacturing orders in the US did not affect the market in any way, most likely because the worsening geopolitical situation is currently driving everything.

Today, investors should pay attention to the upcoming PMI reports from Germany, France, Italy and the eurozone. The US will also release similar reports, but more important are the data on foreign trade balance and business activity in the services sector. Statements from FOMC members Lael Brainard and John Williams could increase demand for dollar, resulting in another decline in EUR/USD. The Fed's aggressive interest rate policy will also affect the markets.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0992 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1020 (thicker green line on the chart). However, a further increase is unlikely today, except if the PMI data turns out much better than expected and if the situation in the world improves. In any case, when buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0968, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0992 and 1.1020.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0968 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0945. Pressure will return if data on the EU economy comes out much weaker than expected. Deterioration of the situation in the political area will also lead to a decline. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0992, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0968 and 1.0945.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.