4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 245.7489
On Friday, the British pound rose by 100 points thanks to disgusting statistics from America. And on Monday, it continued to grow and added about 200 points after it became known about the complete victory of the Scottish nationalists in the parliamentary elections. Although the reaction is at least strange. Recall that a victory for the Scottish National Party would mean that the chances of Scotland separating from England would increase. Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has promised that if her party wins and improves its influence within parliament, it will achieve the possibility of holding an independence referendum by the end of 2023. This weekend, it became known that the SNP won 64 seats out of 129 possible ones. it almost formed a "majority government." Before this result, she was only one mandate short. However, as experts say, this is not a problem for Nicola Sturgeon's party because it can always find one vote in the coalition parties. Moreover, at least two other parties support the idea of secession from Great Britain, which at this rate will soon no longer be able to be called Great Britain but will be England. Recall that Northern Ireland is also beginning to show separatist signs. Many residents believe that within the next 25 years, their country will leave the Kingdom. Thus, the UK is simply falling apart before our eyes, and so far, it is not even clear who to blame for this? On the one hand, the referendum was popular. That is, every Briton could vote in the referendum. On the other hand, there are far more English people in the UK than Scots, Welsh, or Irish. Therefore, they decided on the share of the Kingdom and its future in the European Union. But even with this state of affairs, the results of the referendum cannot be called unambiguous. Recall that with a margin of only 3.5%, the supporters of leaving the EU won. It means that at least 48% of UK residents were against severing ties with the European Union. As it turned out later, most of the Scots voted against leaving the EU. Therefore, it is not surprising that after the end of Brexit, there were questions about the severance of all ties with England among some members of the UK itself. Boris Johnson, who just a few months ago became the politician who finally managed to complete the long-suffering Brexit, will now be concerned about how to keep the UK in full force. Formally, of course, he has every right not to allow Scotland to hold a new independence referendum, and he has an iron argument for this. In 2014, the Scots already held a referendum, and then the majority voted to remain part of Britain. According to Johnson, the Scots can not and will not vote for independence every 5-10 years because it is "a matter of one generation." However, Nicola Sturgeon herself hints more strongly that London cannot constantly restrain the Scots and keep them in a cage. According to the First Minister of Scotland, her country can hold a referendum on independence without the official permission of London and then transfer this case to the court, which will decide whether such a referendum and its results were legitimate. For the pound, all this news is more bad news than good news. It is unlikely that the potential withdrawal of Scotland from the UK can be called positive news. Thus, in theory, the pound should now be falling desperately against the dollar. However, is the pound trading logically in the last year? The British currency continues to move solely based on its own rules. Of course, the factor of pumping trillions of dollars into the American economy also plays a big role here. In addition, there has long been a "speculative factor" in the pound. But even so, was there much fundamental reason for the pound to rise at a time when London and Brussels could not agree on a trade deal, and it hung in the balance? But this state of trade negotiations persisted for at least 5-6 months when David Frost and Michel Barnier just once every one or two weeks declared that they had failed to make any progress. And in 2021, it became clear that the trade deal with the EU does not take into account and does not regulate relations between London and Brussels in Britain's most important service sector, especially the financial services sector. The indicators of imports and exports to the EU countries fell. There have been repeated misunderstandings between London and Brussels, which have threatened to turn into a full-fledged conflict over implementing certain provisions of the Brexit deal. In general, the UK did not get better in 2021. However, after rising by 28 cents in 2020, the pound sterling barely managed to correct by 6 in February-March, and now in the last two trading days has passed 300 points up and is now near its 3-year highs. Thus, we are not surprised that the pound is rising again when it would be much more logical to fall. Accordingly, technical factors are now in the first place since the fundamental ones are interpreted very strangely by the markets. However, we remind you that we have repeatedly predicted the growth of both the euro and the pound, which we are now seeing.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 100 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Tuesday, May 11, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.4035 and 1.4235. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal the beginning of a downward correction.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.4099
S2 – 1.4038
S3 – 1.3977
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.4160
R2 – 1.4221
R3 – 1.4282
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair is in a strong upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to trade for an increase with the targets of 1.4221 and 1.4282 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sell orders should be opened if the pair's quotes are fixed below the moving average with a target of 1.3855.
