To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Buyers of the British pound failed to show anything at 1.2573, the breakout of which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart, which became a bearish signal, which I spoke about in more detail in my morning forecast. At this moment, the bulls focused on protecting the support of 1.2501, which already had several rebounds up, but it is unlikely that the bulls can hold this area after the report on retail sales in the United States, from which no one expects anything good. In the scenario of a breakout of this area on the third test, it is best to exit long positions and wait for the update of the lows of 1.2402 and 1.2294, where you can open long positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of correction of about 40-50 points. An equally important task for buyers will be to regain the resistance of 1.2573, which will preserve the upward potential in the pair, but this scenario is unlikely.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Sellers follow exactly the morning scenario and, having achieved a breakout of the support of 1.2573 in the first half of the day, are now aiming for a breakout of the minimum of 1.2501. Fixing below this area will lead the pair to the larger levels of 1.2402 and 1.2294, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of an upward correction of GBP/USD in the afternoon after the release of the report on US retail sales, short positions can be returned immediately to a rebound from a maximum of 1.2573, or you can sell a pound even higher from a monthly resistance of 1.2632.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is already below the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a change in market sentiment.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the scenario of an upward correction of the pair in the first half of the day, you can return to short positions immediately on the rebound from the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2573.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20