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04.03.2020 03:31 PM
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on March 4. The nondescript PMI for the UK services sector scared off new buyers of the pound. The fight for 1.2796 continues

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In the first half of the day, I paid attention to the data on the service sector, which turned out to be slightly worse than economists' forecasts. However, they failed to seriously affect the overall technical picture, which kept trade in the side channel. At the same time, the pound pair managed to form a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2796, which is a fairly good bullish signal for further growth of the pound. However, we can only talk about continuing the correction after the breakout and consolidation at the resistance of 1.2847, since the update of this week's highs will lead to the demolition of sellers' stop orders and a larger upward trend with the test of the levels of 1.2891 and 1.2930, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the GBP/USD falls back below the level of 1.2796, you can open long positions for a rebound at the minimum of the month of 1.2744. However, counting on correction of no more than 20-30 points, a break of 1.2796 will increase the probability of resuming the downward trend.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers tried to regain support for 1.2796 against the background of ambiguous data on the service sector. However, they have not yet managed to gain a serious foothold below this level and form a breakthrough of the lower border of the ascending channel. The entire focus will be shifted to data on a similar index in the US, and if the indicator is better than economists' forecasts, we can expect a return and breakdown of the minimum of 1.2744 and a resumption of the bearish trend, which will open for GBP/USD lows in the area of 1.2707 and 1.2664, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the demand for the pound returns, it is best to open short positions from the resistance of 1.2847 but subject to the formation of a false breakdown. Otherwise, you can only sell the pound for a rebound after testing the highs of 1.2891 and 1.2930.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a possible change in the short-term trend to an upward one.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has decreased, but a break in the upper limit of the indicator at 1.2840 may provide growth for the British pound.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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