Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1129 occurred when the MACD indicator rose significantly from the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential—especially after the weak Eurozone PMI data. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1129, while the MACD was in the overbought zone, led to the execution of Scenario #2 for selling, which I detailed in my forecast, resulting in a 15-pip drop for the pair. The euro's decline was limited by similarly weak PMI data from the U.S.

Today, in the first half of the day, we will have reports from IFO, which will indicate the business climate, the current conditions, and the economic expectations for Germany. Weak data will lead to a further decline of the euro. The speech from European Central Bank board member Joachim Nagel will also attract attention, and hints at rate cuts will be interpreted as sell signals for the euro. If we can avoid this, the chances of sustaining the upward trend will remain. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementing scenarios Nos. 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1122 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.1158. At the 1.1158 mark, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pips movement from the entry point. You can expect a rise in the euro today in the first half of the day after good data related to Germany. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price at 1.1102 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1122 and 1.1158.

Sell Signal

Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1102 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1069, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high and weak Eurozone data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive price tests at 1.1122 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1102 and 1.1069.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.