EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair tried to continue the downward movement last Friday, but, by and large, again without much success. As we have said more than once, the reinforced level of 1.1704 does not let the price fall below it. Thus, in the medium term, there are still high chances for a new upward trend to form. Nevertheless, the quotes repeatedly return to the level of 1.1704, and the bears are trying to overcome it again and again. Fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds did not provide any support to the dollar on Friday. Moreover, they did not affect the pair's movement at all. Nevertheless, several trading signals were formed during the day, and they were quite strong, although not the most accurate. The first signal was formed during the entire European trading session, because all this time the price was moving strictly along the Kijun-sen line. Nevertheless, in the end the quotes dropped below this line, which served as a signal to open short positions. The closest level - 1.1704 - was worked out just a couple of hours later, and it worked out almost perfectly. Since a rebound followed from it, short positions should have been closed and long positions were opened. The price subsequently returned to the level of 1.1704 one more time and bounced again. But this was the end of the movement on Friday, so traders could earn literally 10 points from a long position. The profit on a short position was about 20 points. Thus, 30 points of profit, given that the volatility was 46 points, is an excellent result.

EUR/USD 1H

You see that the euro/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe, but the 1.1704 level (with the exception of one moment last week) cannot be overcome. Thus, the upward correction to the trend line may continue today or tomorrow. If the bulls manage to overcome the trend line, this will allow the pair to continue moving up, which could be the beginning of a new upward trend. Recall that we continue to expect the formation of a new upward trend, however, the US dollar continues to somehow miraculously keep a positive direction for itself. On Monday, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.1612, 1.1666, 1.1704, 1.1750, 1.1805, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1775) and Kijun-sen (1.1719) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Only the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde can be distinguished from the important events on September 27. The markets may trade more actively during her speech, but everything will depend on how important the information she shares is.

We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.

COT report

The mood of non-commercial traders became less bullish again during the last reporting week (September 14-20). This is eloquently signaled by the green line of the first indicator, which is responsible for displaying the net position of the "non-commercial" group of traders. Thus, the most important category of traders at this time continues to look towards short positions on the euro in the medium term. Nevertheless, they have not been able to go beyond the "zero line" for several weeks already. Thus, their sentiment does not change to bearish, and the pair cannot overcome the 1.1700 level. Consequently, everything rests not only on the level of 1.1700, but also on the mood of big traders who have been very reluctant to sell the euro in recent weeks. It is also clearly seen that their net position has been declining for a long time (second indicator), but at the same time it cannot become negative. As a result, the pair has been trading in the range of 1.1700 - 1.2300 for about nine months. While facing the horizontal channel, the movement for this period of time can not be called flat.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.