Overview

GBP/JPY broke the support level of 191.96 last week suggesting that the rebound from 184.95 was already completed at 195.25. A fall from there is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 195.86. An initial bias is on the downside this week (for 184.95 support and below). We will look for strong support around 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88 to countinue moving downside in order to rebound.

According to the H4 chart, an uptrend from 116.83 is still in progress. The current rise is likely to test at least 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80 in the medium term. A break of 174.86 will result in a deeper correction first. We should be cautious when trading around the med-term topping at the 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, a reak of 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expected.