Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 152.13 price level in the second half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling. A similar situation occurred with potential buy positions towards the end of the U.S. session after the price reached 152.45. As a result, I ended the day without any trades.

Today's strong data on Japan's large manufacturers' index, non-manufacturing index, and the index for capital expenditures by large enterprises failed to provide the necessary support for the Japanese yen. The yen continued to lose ground against the U.S. dollar following yesterday's news about a sharp increase in U.S. producer prices for November. Despite positive figures showing growing activity in these key sectors of Japan's economy, traders remain uninterested in the yen. One reason for this could be ongoing global market uncertainty and political instability, which deter investors from the Japanese currency. Market participants are awaiting the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting, where a decision to keep rates unchanged is expected, adding further risks for the yen. However, should discussions about raising rates resurface, demand for the yen will likely return immediately.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 153.15 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 153.71 (thicker green line). Near 153.71, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Given the upward trend, acting in its direction is advisable. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 152.82 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth to the opposite levels of 153.15 and 153.71 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 152.82 (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.29, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Selling pressure may return today after an unsuccessful update of the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.15 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 152.82 and 152.29 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.