Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 149.08 price level occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. A second test shortly after could have been considered a potential Scenario #2 for selling. However, as shown on the chart, the pair did not make a significant downward move. In the second half of the day, strong U.S. Producer Price Index data could lead to a rise in the dollar, but if buyers do not react to the data, it is better to avoid long positions at the end of the week—especially near the weekly high. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations will also be released today, but hopes are low for their impact. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to proceed based on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point around 149.22 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for a rise to the level of 149.71 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.71, I plan to exit my buys and open sell positions in the opposite direction, with an anticipated movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction. A rise in the pair today is possible only after an increase in U.S. inflation. Note: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.84 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise towards the resistance levels of 149.22 and 149.71 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below the 148.84 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 148.31 level, where I plan to exit my sell positions. I will then open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points. Pressure on the pair will return if inflation data comes in weaker than expected. Note: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.22 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline towards the support levels of 148.84 and 148.31 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.