Forex Analysis & Reviews: 09.08.2021 - Upcoming inflation data is...

09.08.2021 10:37 AM

Upcoming inflation data is unlikely to overshadow the report on US employment

US employment rose more than expected in July. The US Department of Labor said the number of jobs in the non-farm sector jumped by 943,000, after rising 938,000 in the previous month. The increase was partly driven by a hike in leisure and hospitality employment, which surged by 380,000, and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 5.4%, which is the lowest level since March 2020. Another reason was the improvement in household employment, which jumped by 1.043 million. The report also mentioned a 0.4% increase in average hourly wages for employees and a 4.0% jump in annual wage growth.

Perhaps, many citizens now realize that the financial situation will worsen when the government stops the support programs. Also, it is better to find a job now while there are quite a few vacancies rather than later because when the situation stabilizes, there will be much fewer opportunities for getting higher-paying jobs.

Accordingly, the positive data leaves room for an earlier policy change by the Federal Reserve.

On Wednesday, there will be a report on US consumer prices, which is likely to show the slowest growth in July. Such will once again prove that consumer sentiment is dependent on support measures from the government, so the more there are discussions on reducing aid measures, the more conservative consumers will become in their spending.

To be more specific, analysts forecast CPI to increase by only 0.5%, while core CPI will rise by only 0.4%.

There will also be speeches from Fed representatives such as Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin and Esther George.

On a different note, the recent surge in wholesale stocks amid expectations of continued shortages is a good sign for the economy. The data said inventories increased 1.1% in June, after rising 1.3% in May. Durable goods inventories also gained 1.4% over the month and increased 0.6% over the year.

In Europe, ECB council member Jens Weidmann warned that inflation in the area could rise much faster than expected, so the emergency bond buying program that was introduced at the start of the coronavirus pandemic should not be delayed. The central bank projects inflation to average at 1.9% in 2021, and then decline to 1.5% and 1.4% in 2022 and 2023. But while underlying price pressures should intensify as the economy recovers, the current forecast suggests that inflation will remain well below the ECB's 2% target.

With regards to other macro economic reports, data released last Friday showed that industrial production in Germany unexpectedly fell in June, partly due to supply shortages. Destatis reported that the index fell 1.3%, after slipping 0.8% in the previous month. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for the sector remains cautiously optimistic, thanks to continued high demand from abroad and the domestic market.

As for EUR/USD, a lot depends on 1.1765 today because its breakdown will result in a rise to 1.1780 and the base of the 18th figure. But if pressure persists on the pair, price will collapse to 1.1745, and then to 1.1715 and 1.1680.

GBP

Recruitment activity in the UK has sharply increased, but the availability of candidates unfortunately decreased. The main reason was concerns about workplace safety, which also pressured starting wages.

Surprisingly, the data did not affect the markets much, but today a lot depends on 1.3880 because its breakdown will lead to an increase towards the 39th figure. But if pressure persists on the pair, price will plunge to 1.3850, and then to 1.3810 and 1.3760.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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