4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 193.7798
The British pound on Friday continued to trade in a "swing" mode, which again began in recent weeks. In general, the movement of the pound/dollar pair now looks like this: 250 points up, the same amount down. The minimum slope is present, however, it is minimal. The downward correction continues globally, however, it is very weak. Thus, the pound continues to trade, violating all the laws of logic. There are still no fundamental reasons for finding the British currency so high. And given the recent events on the island of Ireland, as well as the upcoming May 6, when elections to the local parliament will be held in Scotland, in which the Scottish National Party is 90% likely to strengthen its strength, the pound should already be falling. But the "speculative factor" and the factor of pumping the American economy with money do their "dirty work". And despite the complete lack of grounds for such an expensive British pound, it is this currency that continues to feel just fine, despite Brexit, three "lockdowns", the slow pace of economic recovery, the possible loss of Scotland, and mass riots on the island of Ireland.
Meanwhile, unrest continues in Northern Ireland. Clashes with the police, mass protests, car arson. Recall that the essence of the conflict stretches back to the 19th century and it lies in the status of Ireland and Northern Ireland. There are a sufficient number of political forces in the countries that hold different opinions. Unionists in Northern Ireland believe that they should remain part of the UK. The loyalists are in favor of unification with Ireland, however, the Irish and the Northern Irishmen do not want a border or any semblance of a border between their states. But since the European Union and Britain are now on opposite sides of the barricades, it can not do without a border between them. And, recall, Ireland is not part of Britain, but it is part of the EU.
Meanwhile, in Scotland, everyone is preparing for what may be one of the most important elections in decades. The fact is that at the moment the ruling party is the Scottish National Party, led by the current First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. The SNP last Thursday formally promised to hold a new independence referendum within the next 2.5 years if it wins the May 6 election. "If a simple majority for an independence referendum can be formed in the Scottish Parliament after the election, then Boris Johnson or anyone else in London will have no democratic, electoral or moral justification for depriving the people of Scotland of the right to determine their future," SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said when presenting the party's manifesto last week. Thus, the elections to the Scottish Parliament will become "British-style". We mean that the Scottish people will have to make a choice not only in favor of one party or another but also in favor of whether they want a new referendum or not. Recall that in December 2019, the early parliamentary elections in the UK had the same meaning. The question then was not whether Labor or the Conservatives will lead the country in the coming years, but whether the British people want to resolve the issue of Brexit as soon as possible? Then the majority of Britons voted for Boris Johnson's party and Brexit was brought to an end. Now the same thing will happen in Scotland. If the SNP wins, it will mean that a majority of Scots are in favor of a new independence referendum. Recall that in 2016, the majority of Scots voted against leaving the EU, and in 2014 - for maintaining membership in the UK. "At stake is the immediate and distant future not only of Scotland but of the entire United Kingdom. Therefore, when I say that this is the most important election I have ever participated in, I am serious," said Douglas Ross, a spokesman for the SNP party. However, we recall that Scotland, as an autonomous republic, requires official permission from London to hold a referendum. Boris Johnson flatly refuses to grant Edinburgh such a right. And if in 2024 the Conservatives and Johnson win the British elections again, he will not be in the next 4 years. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that she is not going to go the way of Catalonia and wants to achieve independence from London either by winning elections or through the courts. It should also be noted that Scotland has a very complex electoral system. According to forecasts of political scientists, the SNP and the Green Party can get together 73 seats out of 129. At the moment, the SNP has 61 mandates out of 129, however, it still rules the country thanks to a coalition with the same "greens". By and large, the question of the upcoming elections is whether the so-called separatists will be able to form a majority in the Parliament or not. Sturgeon's party, of course, wants enough seats for her party to be fully independent, neither from the Greens nor from other supporters of Scottish independence. However, a coalition is also a good option if something happens. It should also be noted that among the Scots themselves, those who are in favor of independence from Britain have an advantage, but their advantage is minimal.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 84 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Monday, April 19, therefore, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3747 and 1.3915. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal a new round of downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.3824
S2 – 1.3794
S3 – 1.3763
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.3855
R2 – 1.3885
R3 – 1.3916
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair has started a new round of upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in buy orders with targets of 1.3885 and 1.3915 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sell orders should be opened in case of overcoming the moving average with the targets of 1.3733 and 1.3672 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up.
