empty
05.03.2021 12:38 PM
Dollar reigns supreme in Forex

The reality is that the ECB's influence on financial markets is limited. The Fed's lack of concern about the rapid rally in Treasury yields is causing even bigger sell-offs in securities. Technology stocks, which were the leaders in growth in 2020, look particularly overvalued and, accordingly, vulnerable. The correction of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite brings the US dollar back to life.

The first week of spring kicked off with a powerful weapon attack by the ECB, whose representatives not only expressed concern about the growth of European bond yields but also argued that the central bank can and should intervene to limit this process. Nevertheless, the euro strengthened, and at the end of the five-day period began to fall, although chief economist Philip Lane said that there is no need to panic. What is the reason? Despite the rise in bond rates, financial conditions in the eurozone remain favorable for economic recovery, so there is no reason to worry about a rally in bond yields.

Dynamics of rates and financial conditions in the euro area

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, even though the ECB meeting seems to be a key event in the second week of March, and investors will actively discuss whether the regulator will signal an expansion of the emergency asset purchase program, in fact, the main drivers of EUR/USD growth should be sought outside the eurozone. Particularly in the US, on their $21 trillion treasury bond market.

According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, he could be concerned about the panic in the financial markets and an excessively rapid rally in rates, but so far he does not see all this. Well, investors can continue to test the Fed's strength. According to the global Purchasing Managers' Index, Treasury yields have room to grow. I wonder what the head of the central bank will say if the indicator for 10-year securities rises above 2%?

Dynamics of US bond yields and models based on global PMI

This image is no longer relevant

The hotter the sell-off in the US securities market, the higher the rates rise, the wider the yield differential between US and German bonds becomes, according to which, under normal conditions, it is possible to accurately predict the dynamics of the EUR/USD. If in 2018-2019 the divergence in monetary policy was pushed into a corner by trade wars, and in 2020 - a pandemic, now this driver of exchange rate formation on Forex is showing itself in full glory.

The development of a correction for the main currency pair looks like an objective reality, and even the absence of ECB concern about the situation in the eurozone debt market will not stop the bears on EUR/USD. The question is, is the upward trend broken? I don't think so. With the UK reaching a 30% vaccination rate by April, and the EU by summer, risk appetite will return, forcing the US dollar to go on the defensive. In the meantime, we must admit that it rules the ball.

Technically, a Broadening Wedge pattern was formed on the EUR/USD daily chart. An upward correction followed by rebounds from resistances at 1.199, 1.204, and 1.208 should be used to sell.

EUR/USD, Daily chart

This image is no longer relevant

Pilih timeframe
5
mnt
15
mnt
30
mnt
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Dapatkan keuntungan dari perubahan nilai mata uang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Unduh MetaTrader 4 dan buka perdagangan pertama Anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    GABUNG KONTES

Artikel yang direkomendasikan

Data Positif dari Tiongkok dan Meningkatnya Selera Risiko Mendukung Prospek Bullish untuk Kiwi – Analisis NZD/USD

Dolar Selandia Baru (NZD) mendapatkan faktor bullish yang kuat lainnya karena Indeks Harga Komoditas ANX mencatat kenaikan kuat lainnya pada bulan Februari, naik 3,0% bulan-ke-bulan (m/m) dan 14% tahun-ke-tahun (y/y)

Kuvat Raharjo 10:36 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Diperkirakan Tidak Ada Kejutan Besar dari Pertemuan Fed (Mengantisipasi Penurunan Tajam EUR/USD dan Pertumbuhan Harga Emas yang Hati-hati)

Pasar mengalami gejolak akibat risiko resesi ekonomi di AS. Meskipun Menteri Keuangan Bessent berusaha meyakinkan para investor dengan menyebut "koreksi" pasar sebagai proses yang sehat, kekhawatiran ini tetap belum terpecahkan

Pati Gani 08:48 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Apa yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 18 Maret? Rincian Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pemula

Sejumlah besar peristiwa makroekonomi dijadwalkan pada hari Selasa, tetapi tidak ada yang signifikan. Misalnya, Zona Euro dan Jerman akan merilis indeks sentimen ekonomi ZEW, yang menurut kami tidak akan memengaruhi

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Gambaran Pasangan GBP/USD – 18 Maret: Pound Terus Naik

Pada hari Senin, pasangan mata uang GBP/USD terus cenderung mengalami pertumbuhan. Tidak ada peristiwa signifikan di Inggris sepanjang hari, sementara di AS, hanya satu laporan yang dirilis, yang bukan penyebab

Paolo Greco 04:04 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Gambaran Umum Pasangan EUR/USD – 18 Maret: Istirahat Telah Berakhir

Pada pasangan mata uang EUR/USD, pergerakan naik telah dilanjutkan. Karena pada hari ini hampir tidak ada berita dan tidak ada yang signifikan, volatilitas tetap cukup rendah, mencegah euro melakukan pergerakan

Paolo Greco 04:04 2025-03-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Analisis dan Prediksi

Yen Jepang terus berada dalam posisi defensif terhadap dolar AS, seiring dengan meningkatnya sentimen risiko global setelah langkah-langkah stimulus baru yang diumumkan oleh Tiongkok pada akhir pekan. Hal ini telah

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-03-17 UTC+2

USD/CAD: Pasangan Ini Memulai Minggu Baru dengan Hati-hati

Pada awal minggu yang baru, pasangan USD/CAD bergerak dengan hati-hati, berfluktuasi dalam rentang sempit di atas 1,4350 dan tetap di atas SMA 50 hari. Namun, faktor fundamental menunjukkan potensi risiko

Irina Yanina 11:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Apakah investor saham siap membeli saham saat terjadi penurunan tajam?

Apa pun bisa terjadi cepat atau lambat. S&P 500 memasuki wilayah koreksi hanya dalam 16 sesi trading. Dalam 24 kejadian sebelumnya saat saham turun 10% dari rekor tertinggi terbaru tetapi

Marek Petkovich 09:32 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pasar Akan Tetap dalam Keadaan Tertekan untuk Beberapa Waktu (kami mengharapkan penurunan baru pada #Bitcoin dan #Litecoin)

Pasar keuangan global terus dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh kebijakan presiden AS, yang mengganggu kerangka ekonomi dan geopolitik yang sudah ada sebelumnya. Tentu saja, hal ini memengaruhi pasar. Meskipun demikian, pelaku

Pati Gani 09:15 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Dolar Terjual, Ancaman Resesi Meningkat, Indeks S&P 500 Berisiko Mengalami Keruntuhan Besar

Penjualan dolar terus berlanjut tanpa tanda-tanda melambat. Menurut laporan CFTC, posisi net long pada USD menurun sebesar $4,6 miliar lagi selama seminggu, mencapai $4,9 miliar—tingkat terendah dalam 21 minggu. Euro

Kuvat Raharjo 08:52 2025-03-17 UTC+2
Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.