To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The euro approached last week's highs amid positive news from the Eurogroup meeting last week, as well as in anticipation of an important decision to create a financial stability fund in the EU, which will lead to further growth of EUR/USD. Yesterday, buyers completed their task only in the afternoon and managed to break through above the level of 1.1347, a good signal to open long positions. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls made their way and tested the 1.1347 area from top to bottom, which became a good point for entering the market during the upward trend. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for July 7 recorded an increase in long positions and a very slight rise in short ones, which indicates a gradual increase in demand for risky assets. There are more and more people who want to buy euros in the current conditions and at current high prices, which may lead to further growth in the medium term. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from 81,432 to 81,562, while long non-commercial positions jumped from 180,387 to 185,159. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position grew to 103,597 versus 98,955, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets at current prices. As for the intraday strategy, a number of fairly important fundamental statistics will be released today that can affect the pair. I advise you to open long positions in the euro immediately for a rebound after pulling down 1.1307 towards the middle of the wide side channel, counting on the resumption of the bullish trend and on the break of resistance 1.1373. The pair's direction will depend on this level, since consolidating on it will be another signal to buy, which will open a direct path for the bulls to the highs of 1.1401 and 1.1430, where I recommend taking profits. In the absence of activity in the 1.1307 area and poor data on the eurozone, it is best to postpone long positions until the lower border of the side channel 1.1257 is updated, where you can buy the euro immediately for a rebound based on the same 30-40 correction points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Euro sellers will wait for weak reports on eurozone industrial production and inflation data in Germany, which may turn out to be slightly worse than economists' forecasts, which will increase pressure on the pair, as traders will be quite careful in their approach to the market as the European Central Bank meeting approaches and EU Summit. Therefore, forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1373 will be a signal to open short positions in order to decline and test the support of 1.1307. However, it will be possible to talk about the bears taking control into their own hands only after consolidating below support 1.1307, which will be an additional signal to open short positions based on a test of a low of 1.1257, where I recommend taking profits. In the absence of activity on the part of the bears in the resistance area of 1.1373, it is best to wait for the renewal of new, larger highs 1.1401 and 1.1430 and sell EUR/USD from there, based on a rebound of 25-30 points within the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates bulls are trying to continue the growth of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.1373. A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.1315 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.