Traders concentrated on the mirror level.
The technical correction returned the quote to the level of 1.0850, where trading forces arose, slowing down activity and forming a variable framework of 1.0815 / 1.0860. Similar accumulation was already observed earlier, but this time's amplitude width was greater than 1.0815 / 1.0885. Based on this, the existing framework may be expanded, thereby repeating April 16-21's fluctuation.
Bearish mood is still expected. The theory of successive fluctuations has been set, from which the break of its model's base [1.0768] signals the possible resumption of the downward move. The last bars of the fluctuation, which were directed downward, confirms it further. Investors also seem to be locally transferring funds to the US dollar, and the consequences of the pandemic on the EU economy are also emerging.
Another 43% slowdown in volatility, relative to the daily average, and is the lowest value recorded in 10 trading days, was observed. Acceleration is not ruled out, based on the statistics below.
Details of volatility: Monday - 155 points; Tuesday - 183 points; Wednesday - 115 points; Thursday - 278 points; Friday - 166 points; Monday - 151 points; Tuesday - 234 points; Wednesday - 243 points; Thursday - 326 points; Friday - 194 points; Monday - 191 points; Tuesday - 160 points; Wednesday - 133 points; Thursday - 188 points; Friday - 194 points; Monday - 134 points; Tuesday - 127 points; Wednesday - 136 points; Thursday - 147 points; Friday - 91 points; Monday - 67 points; Tuesday - 142 points; Wednesday - 72 points; Thursday - 110 points; Friday - 33 points; Monday - 74 points; Tuesday - 84 points; Wednesday - 134 points; Thursday - 95 points; Friday - 80 pips; Monday - 55 points; Tuesday - 64 points; Wednesday - 82 points; Thursday - 90 points; Friday - 101 pips The average daily indicator, relative to the dynamics of volatility,
As discussed in the previous review , fluctuations within the range of 1.0815 / 1.0885 occurred, where local and main positions are present.
The consistent return of quotes to the base point of March 20 in the daily chart indicates that the main downward trend is alive.
Yesterday's news contained data on March applications for unemployment benefits in France, which recorded a huge growth of 246,100 applications, which is the largest figure since 1996.
The consequences of the coronavirus pandemic in the economy is becoming more and more visible.
According to EU Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, the economic decline in the Eurozone might be more significant than 2008.
"Europe is facing a severe recession this year. Our next economic forecast will be on May 7, where a significant reduction in this year's GDP is expected, worse than the 2008 global financial crisis. Both the European Commission and the IMF roughly estimates a GDP decline of 7.5%," Gentiloni said.
Gentiloni also said that the main cause of recession is not the pandemic, but the quarantine measures introduced to combat it, which froze the EU economy for two months
To date, the total number of coronavirus cases worldwide exceeds 3 million, and more than 200 thousand people have died from the infection.
Today's news involve data on bulk orders in the US, where 1% growth is expected.
Further development
A sharp surge in activity was observed at the beginning of the European session, during which the quote managed to break yesterday's high and head to the upper boundary of the earlier cluster. It is the same local acceleration described in volatility. The main question now is whether yesterday's pattern will slow down the current move, since the price is already at the upper boundary of 1.0815 / 1.0885.
Quotes may once again find resistance within the 1.0885 mark, which will cause a price return to 1.0815. Moreover, panic mood still persists, so fluctuations may occur across technical and fundamental analyses.
Based on the above information, we came up with these trading recommendations:
- Buy longs above 1.0860, towards 1.0885. Consolidation above 1.0910 will determine further operations.
- Sell shorts below 1.0810, towards 1.0775-1.0735. Subsequent transaction at below 1.0700, towards 1.0636.
Indicator analysis
Bullish mood remains in the hourly and minute time frames. Neutral signals in the daily time frame are caused by the price return to the area of 1.0885.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated per Month / Quarter / Year.
(April 28 was built, taking into account the time of publication of the article)
Current volatility is 76 points, which is 55% higher than yesterday's. Slowdown in accumulation will result in usual activity for the rest of the day.
Key levels
Resistance Zones: 1.0885 *; 1,1000 ***; 1.1080 **; 1,1180; 1.1300; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1,2100
Support areas: 1.0850 **; 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1,0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1,0000 ***.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
