Forex Analysis & Reviews: 09.09.2019 - Gold will push off the...

09.09.2019 12:47 PM

Gold will push off the bottom

According to analysts, the yellow metal will need some time to recover. It is possible that this week gold will be able to regain lost ground.

Last week, the precious metal reached a new multi-year high at $1,557 per 1 troy ounce. Subsequently, its price dropped significantly, reaching $1,506. Experts believe that this week gold will be able to exceed this indicator.

A significant drop in gold prices last Thursday was caused by information about the possibility of a new stage in trade negotiations between the United States and China. It is possible that this will happen next month.

According to experts, in the event of a long-term trade conflict, China's economic losses will be greater than those of the United States, but this will not give America any advantages. At the moment, the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing is far from being resolved. At the same time, US President Donald Trump announced a possible trade war with the European Union. This will significantly increase the risk of recession and lead to an increase in demand for safe assets, primarily gold, experts remind.

The precious metals market is currently under pressure. The reason for this is an unstable geopolitical situation and the way out of which is not visible. In this regard, experts admit a possible consolidation of prices in the "gold" market. Experts are sure that the conditions for a possible consolidation of precious metals have arisen a long time ago. For example, the American futures market has created the potential for correction of the yellow metal.

Pessimistic forecasts of experts suggest a decrease in gold quotes to $1,500 per 1 ounce. In the event of adverse events, the cost of precious metals may fall to $1,425 per 1 ounce. The fact is that the uptrend, which began in August this year, is showing a slowdown, experts emphasized.

Nevertheless, a number of short-term and medium-term forecasts for gold suggests a further increase in quotations. At the same time, there is a high probability of a stock market crash in the near future, which could trigger a rise in the price of precious metals. Markets are now waiting for further cuts in interest rates after a speech by Jerome Powell, head of the Fed last week. There is an assumption that the rate cut in September is not the last measure adopted by the Federal Reserve. The regulator is able to continue easing monetary policy in the first half of 2020, experts say.

This week, the ECB may also reduce the rate, and the Bank of England - to make a similar decision if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. The active implementation of a stimulating monetary policy by leading regulators has led to the growth of gold to a maximum level since 2012, and this is not the limit.

The ECB may also reduce the rate this week. At the same time, the Bank of England may make a similar decision if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

According to optimistic forecasts, the precious metal is expected to recover to resistance levels from $1510 to $ 1515 next week. In the future, market players expect to increase to $ 1,520 and $1,525 per 1 troy ounce.

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Larisa Kolesnikova,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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