Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed ultra-high volatility, as a result of having a downward impulse movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a very interesting picture, let's take it in order. Quotation, overcoming the local minimum of 1.2381, headed towards the mirror level of 1.2350, where the fleeting stagnation initially formed. After that, the inertial movement did not go to the waiting stage, but, on the contrary, increased many times over, as a result, having a staggering drop to the level of 1.2118 for the current hour. As discussed in a previous review, traders in the form of safety net decided to partially fix the short positions that they held at the level of 1.2500. The decision in this case was meaningful, since the fulcrum (1.2350), and the probability of forming a technical correction was great. However, the market went its own way and continued the inertial move. In this case, the multipass in the form of a partial exit (incomplete) with the movement of the stop to the break-even position gave traders the opportunity to earn even more. Considering the trading chart in general terms (day timeframe), we see everything that I described in the June reviews. The global downward trend is undoubtedly the favorite in this race, and problems in Britain only stimulate it. You just open the daily chart, and everything will become clear, and there, you will see the values of 2017-2016.
The information and news background of the past day had practically no solid statistical data in it. The only thing that was published was the data on the UK lending market, but did they manage to fail the English currency? The answer is of course not. The data came out in line with expectations, even with a slight increase, but the market did not care at this moment, since Brexit was in the center of attention. Boris Johnson declared his firm intention to withdraw from the EU on October 31 once again, in any outcome - with or without a deal. Johnson also noted that he hopes to build new partnership agreements with the EU, that the current agreement on withdrawal is "dead", it will not work, but it is possible to conclude a new deal.
Now, it is necessary to distract for a moment and remember that on July 25, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said to Boris, he repeated the same words for the tenth time that the current agreement on withdrawal is the best and only possible deal, there will be no revision.
In turn, the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, said: "It makes me think that no matter what Boris Johnson says publicly about his desire to make a deal, in reality, he is pursuing Brexit without a deal, because this is the logic of the tough position he took. I think it is extremely dangerous for Scotland, and for the whole of Great Britain. "
In principle, everything falls into place now when it allocated 100 billion pounds to a large-scale advertising company, which leads to the preparation of the country's exit without a deal.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have statistics on the United States regarding personal income and expenses, which should grow by 0.4% and 0.3%. The main event in the form of a Fed meeting is waiting for tomorrow.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that after such an intense inertial move, there is a substantial oversold and the technical correction factor is very likely. Traders, in turn, moved into the phase of complete fixation of previously open deals for sale, more precisely, fixations have already occurred at the moment of yesterday's impulse and grazing the level of 1.2150. It is likely to assume that although everything is not so good in the English currency, such a move and convergence with the levels of 1.2150. Also, in principle, the close proximity of the psychological level of 1.2000 put pressure on the sellers, which causes a flurry of fixations and, as a fact, stagnation - rollback. Thus, the movement in the correction phase 1.2250-1.2270 is considered as a real picture.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:
- Positions to buy are considered in terms of price fixing higher than 1.2200 or in case of a slowdown within 1.2150, where the most optimal entry points will be identified.
- We do not have sell positions at the moment, due to a strong oversold. These positions will be considered in case of a clear fixation lower than 1.2110, or already after a corrective move.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term change their interest from descending to ascending due to the primary retracement. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term prospects both retain a downward interest due to a strong inertial move.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 30 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 107 points, which is already a high value both for the current time period and for the average daily fluctuation. It is likely to assume that in case of stagnation, we will remain within the current borders.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300.
Support areas: 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
