For the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair again showed low volatility with 58 points. The movement was enough to reach the predicted value. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a coincidence of the previously set forecast, the downward inertial course remained on the market, bringing us closer to the values of 1.2600 / 1.2620. I congratulate everyone on the first piece of profit, but this is not the end. Considering the graph in general terms, we see that the clock oscillation is in full swing. The former corrective move went into oblivion, and a new tact in the form of a pulse led us to the local minimum of 1.2604 (May 23), which previously held us. You probably can already guess that all our attention is focused precisely on this value - 1.2604, or rather its breakdown, so that the tact "impulse" continues its march.
We turn to the informational and news background, and here we see that yesterday we had nothing in terms of the economic calendar, complete silence. But, in terms of the information background, the long-playing Brexit keeps us going. Yesterday, representatives of British business asked the ruling Conservative Party and candidates for its leadership not to allow Britain to leave the EU without an agreement. Recall that the possible leader of the race for the place of premiere ex-Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated the possibility of tough Brexit. In turn, Deputy Director of the Confederation of British Industry, Josh Hardy, believes that in these realities, the country's withdrawal from the EU without a deal is possible more than ever.
"Without a doubt, a dangerous exit scenario is possible without a deal now, as October approaches more likely than ever. Right now, companies spend, like throwing in a furnace, money to prepare for Brexit without an agreement, transferring business and accumulating stocks, but it would be much more rational to spend this money on productivity support in Britain, "says Josh Hardy.
Summarizing the information background and the general situation, we understand that clouds continue to thicken over the pound, and there is no gap yet.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we see that in most EU countries, Ascension Day of the Lord is celebrated. In the United States, they are waiting for the publication of a second estimate of GDP for the first quarter, where, according to estimates, economic growth rates may decline to 3.1%. At the same time, data on applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the United States, where a reduction of applications by 10 thousand is expected.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote has dramatically slowed downward movement in the range of 1.2600-1.2620, forming a primary pullback. It is likely to assume further take over the limits of these values, where traders have two tactics at once: the first and the main one is working in the current "momentum" tact, waiting for a clear price fix lower than 1.2600 for laying short positions; The second tactic is considered in terms of the next bounce from the level of 1.2620, where entry positions are considered higher than 1.2670. There is also a third proposition whereas it is prone to a temporary bump around 1.2600-1.2670, expressing a certain regrouping of trading forces before further decline.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short-term perspective have changed from a descending plan to an upward one at the expense of the current foothold and as a fact of a rebound. Intraday and mid-term prospects both maintain a downward interest against the general market background.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 30 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 19 points. Now, everything depends on the behavior of the quotes. As in the case of stagnation within the level, we will keep low volatility, but if the inertial course continues, there will be a completely different picture.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.
Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
