empty
08.03.2019 03:22 PM
The fate of Britain and the pound will be decided on Tuesday

Next week, the volatility of British pound will increase as traders expect an unpredictable Brexit vote. It is noted that on Tuesday, March 12, it will become a kind of "moment of truth" for the UK and the European Union. On this day, the whole world will know whether Britain will either accept the conditions of the European Union, which is almost unbelievable, or the EU will give way to the United Kingdom. Also, another possibility is to postpone the start date of Britain's exit from the union at a later time from March 29 of this year. Theoretically, one can even expect a second referendum on the issue of British exit from the EU. However, pound fluctuations are inevitable. The most likely scenario for movement of the GBP/USD pair will range at $1.30-$1.32.

This image is no longer relevant

Recall that earlier this week, negotiations between officials of Great Britain and the European Union ended without an agreement. Theresa May sent the Attorney General and member of the ruling Conservative Party, Geoffrey Cox to Brussels to bring process the necessary changes to the Brexit deal to pass the agreement through the country's parliament.

London's desire to change the position of the backstop, which is a safety plan that guarantees a clear border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Many British parliamentarians are unhappy with this part of the Brexit deal.

Cox expects that European officials will agree to an independent arbitration of the backstop controversial position so that it can be terminated without the approval of the European Court as Brussels is against such decision.

Meanwhile, May have several days at her disposal to return the revised agreement to parliament. Each side expects the other to make concessions.

At least for now, the risk of "hard" Brexit is lessened. If the Prime Minister's deal is rejected on Tuesday, the parliament is more likely to vote for an extended exit date, while pro-European lawmakers will try to force the government to soften or cancel the "divorce". In addition, reducing the threat of exit without a transaction reduces the need for concessions from the euro block.

According to a report of Bloomberg from cited sources, the EU is ready to seek compromises. The news brought into life the British currency, which briefly soared by 40 points.

This image is no longer relevant

European officials are trying to break the deadlock negotiations and make the British a new proposal. According to sources, it implies more concessions from the bloc than promised by the European Commission Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker and EU President Donald Tusk in the January message.

However, the new initiative still does not fully meet the requirements of England, which cooled the ardor of pound fans. In general, the mood remains positive and prolongs hope and the EU is ready to wait for a response from Britain and reciprocal concessions.

In case of "hard" Brexit

Despite the optimism, the "hard" exit scenario is not excluded. This development contributes to the fall of the pound against the dollar in the $1.20 region as suggest by currency strategists who participated in the Reuters survey.

Nevertheless, the majority of respondents expressed confidence that the parties would be able to reach a compromise. Their average forecast for the GBP/USD pair at the end of March is $1.32.

Another survey by Reuters showed that the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit fell to 15%. However, in the opinion of one respondent, the pound may collapse to parity in the event of an exit without a deal.

Natalya Andreeva,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Pilih timeframe
5
mnt
15
mnt
30
mnt
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Dapatkan keuntungan dari perubahan nilai mata uang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Unduh MetaTrader 4 dan buka perdagangan pertama Anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    GABUNG KONTES

Artikel yang direkomendasikan

Pasar dalam tekanan: Apa arti angka PDB Tiongkok dan pengangguran AS?

Morgan Stanley naik setelah laba kuartal keempat yang lebih tinggi UnitedHealth turun karena tidak ada perkiraan penjualan kuartalan yang dirilis Investor menganalisis data penjualan ritel dan pengangguran Indeks turun

Thomas Frank 09:31 2025-01-17 UTC+2

Musim Laporan Keuangan dan Suku Bunga Global: Asia Bersuka Cita, Dolar Melemah

Saham Asia Naik, Didukung oleh Teknologi Yen Naik ke Level Tertinggi Satu Bulan karena Taruhan Kenaikan Suku Bunga Meningkat Dolar Melemah karena Inflasi AS yang Dingin Memicu Harapan Penurunan Suku

Thomas Frank 10:39 2025-01-16 UTC+2

Mengapa Dow dan S&P 500 tumbuh, sementara Nasdaq terhenti: analisis mendetail

Harga produsen AS naik secara moderat pada bulan Desember Boeing turun setelah laporan pengiriman pesawat yang rendah pada tahun 2024 Eli Lilly turun setelah perkiraan penjualan obat penurun berat badan

Thomas Frank 07:45 2025-01-15 UTC+2

Mengapa Regulasi Chip AI yang Lebih Ketat Membuat Pasar Khawatir, Sementara Perusahaan Asuransi Membuat Investor Bersorak

Moderna Turun Setelah Memangkas Prediksi Penjualan 2025 Saham Chip Turun karena AS Memperketat Kontrol pada Aliran Chip AI Asuransi Kesehatan Naik saat AS Mengusulkan Tarif Pembayaran 2026 Indeks: Dow Naik

Thomas Frank 10:57 2025-01-14 UTC+2

Walgreens Meningkat: Hari Terbaik Sejak 1980 Sementara Raksasa Lainnya Merosot

Pertumbuhan Lapangan Kerja AS Melebihi Ekspektasi di Bulan Desember Futures S&P 500 Turun Menjelang CPI AS, Laporan Keuangan Walgreens Bersiap untuk Hari Terbaik Sejak 1980 Setelah Mengalahkan Laba Kuartal Pertama

Thomas Frank 06:28 2025-01-13 UTC+2

Nikkei dan Futures AS Diam-diam Turun: Di Mana Mencari Ketahanan

Futures Saham AS Turun Setelah Penutupan Nikkei Turun 0,9%, Imbal Hasil Obligasi Tiongkok Naik Data Payroll AS Penting untuk Pasar Obligasi Dolar Melonjak Mendekati Level Tertinggi 2 Tahun, Naik Selama

Thomas Frank 10:18 2025-01-10 UTC+2

Fed memberi sinyal risiko harga: Haruskah kita mengharapkan putaran baru inflasi?

Pertumbuhan pekerjaan sektor swasta AS melambat pada bulan Desember - ADP Risalah pertemuan Fed menunjukkan meningkatnya risiko tekanan harga Saham komputasi kuantum turun karena CEO Nvidia melihat jalan panjang

Thomas Frank 07:20 2025-01-09 UTC+2

Apa yang menanti JPY pada tahun 2025?

Yen sekali lagi muncul sebagai salah satu mata uang dengan kinerja terburuk di G10 pada akhir tahun ini. Sejak Januari, nilai tukarnya terhadap dolar AS telah merosot lebih dari 10%

Аlena Ivannitskaya 07:44 2024-12-30 UTC+2

Dow Mengakhiri Kenaikan 5 Hari, S&P 500 Turun: Hasil Wall Street Jumat

Saham Anjlok dalam Penjualan Besar-besaran; Dow Akhiri Rentetan Kemenangan 5 Sesi Dolar Siap untuk Kenaikan Tahunan 7%; Yen Menghadapi Kerugian Tahun Keempat 45 Keuntungan Indeks YTD S&P 500 Semua Ditutup

Thomas Frank 07:21 2024-12-28 UTC+2

Imbal Hasil Treasury AS 10 Tahun Tertinggi Sejak Mei: Apa Artinya bagi Investor?

Klaim Pengangguran Mingguan Mencapai 219.000, Di Bawah Ekspektasi Saham Crypto Turun Setelah Penurunan Bitcoin Imbal Hasil Treasury AS 10 Tahun Mencapai Tertinggi Sejak Mei Indeks: Dow Naik 0,07%, S&P

Thomas Frank 10:27 2024-12-27 UTC+2
Tidak bisa bicara sekarang?
Tanyakan pertanyaan anda lewat chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.