Over the past trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed volatility which is almost equal to the average daily of 104 points, as a result of reaching the predicted level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have an intense decreasing movement, wherein the quotation still managed to reach the predicted level of 1.2770, and then build a stagnation. Meanwhile, the news background had statistical data on retail sales in the United States, where, according to forecasts, growth was expected from 4.1% to 4.5%, however, the result was entirely a different picture. Retail sales display a decrease to 2.3%. Without a doubt, these figures are shocking for the investors, yet what we see on the trading chart is pound / dollar pair - the dollar continued to strengthen. The reason for this kind of anti-resonance lies in the information background, which did not allow the English currency to strengthen, as its fellow euro / dollar did. The essence of the information background was that there was a regular vote in the British Parliament on the subject of an agreement, or you can simply say Theresa May's strategy for succession from the EU. As you can already guess, Theresa May was defeated once again: 303 people were against while 258 are in favor. . Although this vote was technical, this noise was enough to turn the English Pound.
Today, from the point of view of the economic calendar, market participants are waiting for the data on retail sales in Britain, where growth is expected from 3.0% to 3.4%. This news, coupled with the level of 1.2770, can give impulse to the growth of the pound. Next, we follow the data from the United States, , where industrial production is expected to decrease from 3.2% to 2.1%, which can which can also take into the hands of the pound in constructing a correction.
Moreover, the upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is relatively calm. The week starts with a day off in the United States, where they celebrate the "Presidential Day".
Listed below are the selected most significant events. Also, do not forget about the background information, which spontaneously takes off on the market.
Monday
United States - a day off, celebrating "Presidential Day"
Tuesday
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Average wage with bonuses (Dec): Prev. 3.4%
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Prev. 20.8K
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Unemployment rate (December): Prev. 4.0%
Wednesday
United States 22:00 MSK - Publication of FOMC protocols
Thursday
United States 16:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (December): Prev. -0.3% ---> 0.2% forecast
United States 18:00 MSK - Sales in the secondary housing market (Jan): Prev. 4.99M ---> Forecast 5.05M
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quotation with the most accuracy works out the level of 1.2770. The primary stagnation, after the build-up of long positions, which most probably, can lead to a correction. We can contribute more on this news background. The only catch is the unpredictable information background. If there are some rumors about Brexit again, then we will not see anything good in terms of correction.
Based on the available data, it is possible to break down a number of variations. Let us consider them:
- Positions for buying are considered by traders even at the moment of slowdown at 1.2770, more precisely at 1.2800, where it was. Now, the positions are already in place, if they are not there, then it is possible to consider the coordinates 1.2840 which will allow filtering out false oscillations.
- Positions for sale are not removed from the general plan. As I wrote above, in the case of an unpredictable background information, , we can push the level of 1.2770, and in this case, we can monitor this background and clear fixations below the level.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of the primary level of 1.2770 in the short term, while intraday and mid-term perspective also maintains a downward interest against the general background of the market.
Weekly volatilily / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 15 was based on the time of publication of the article)The current time volatility is 33 points. It can get closer to the daily average.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2830 *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.3200 * 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
