In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0334 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A breakout and retest of 1.0334 provided a good entry point for buying the euro, resulting in a rise of more than 50 points. The technical picture has not been revised for the second half of the day.

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

Positive PMI data for the Eurozone countries, which exceeded economists' expectations, triggered euro purchases in the first half of the day. This resulted in a significant increase in the pair as sellers from the beginning of the year were squeezed out. Ahead, we have data on the US services PMI, composite PMI, and a speech by FOMC member Lisa D. Cook. Only very strong US data can harm the current bullish market. If the figures align with economists' forecasts, the pair is likely to continue growing. Otherwise, I plan to act on purchases during a decline and only after a false breakout forms near the nearest support at 1.0372. This will lead to a repeat rise and a renewal of 1.0414. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm a proper entry point for purchases, with the target of exiting at 1.0446. The ultimate target will be the maximum at 1.0476, where I will fix profits. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0372 in the second half of the day, the pressure on the pair is unlikely to increase significantly, but sellers might drag it down to 1.0334. Only after forming a false breakout there will I act on buying the euro. I will open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0298, targeting an upward correction of 30–35 points intraday.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

If the euro continues to rise on weak US data, protecting the resistance at 1.0414 will remain sellers' priority. Forming a false breakout there will provide an entry point for short positions, aiming for a decline to the support at 1.0372. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, will provide another suitable option for selling with a move toward the minimum at 1.0334. This would negate buyers' plans to build a new bullish market and lock the pair in a sideways channel. The ultimate target will be the 1.0298 level, where I will fix profits. If EUR/USD continues moving up in the second half of the day and bears show no activity around 1.0414, I will delay short positions until testing the next resistance at 1.0446. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0476, targeting a downward correction of 30–35 points.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for December 10 showed an increase in short positions and a reduction in long ones. However, overall, the new figures have kept the market forces virtually unchanged. Soon, the final meeting of this year's US Federal Reserve will take place, where a rate cut decision will likely be made, which has recently prevented the dollar from rising, while maintaining demand for risk assets. With a more cautious Fed approach next year, the chances of a return to a bearish EUR/USD market will increase significantly. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell by 10,318 to 157,375, while short non-commercial positions increased by 7,766 to 232,948. As a result, the gap between long and short positions increased by 4,450.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

The pair is trading above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating further euro growth.

Note: The moving average periods and prices referenced are on the hourly H1 chart, differing from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary at 1.0264 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise.
  • 50-period MA: Highlighted in yellow on the chart.
  • 30-period MA: Highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator: (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence – EMA convergence/divergence).
  • Fast EMA – 12-period.
  • Slow EMA – 26-period.
  • Signal SMA – 9-period.
• Bollinger Bands: A 20-period indicator.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes, meeting specific criteria.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: Represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: Represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-commercial Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.