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02.12.2024 02:30 PM
XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

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The US dollar, which recently pulled back to a nearly three-week low, is now confidently rebounding, supported by robust gains in US Treasury yields. This rebound has become the primary factor putting pressure on the precious metal.

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Additionally, expectations that the tariff plans and expansionist policies of US President-elect Donald Trump will drive inflation higher are creating conditions for the Federal Reserve to pause its rate-cutting policy. This further undermines the potential growth of gold. However, concerns about a potential trade war and geopolitical tensions may help limit losses for the safe-haven asset.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on both the daily and 4-hour charts are starting to show negative momentum, suggesting that the path of least resistance for gold prices lies to the downside.

As a result, a further decline toward last week's swing low, in the $2605 range, seems plausible.

A sustained break below the critical level of $2600 would expose the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently positioned around $2575.

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On the other hand, $2650 may act as an immediate barrier before the swing high from last Friday near $2665.

A decisive move above this zone could allow gold to reclaim the $2700 psychological mark, paving the way for a further rise toward the supply zone at $2721–2722, which serves as a key turning point.

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A strong breakout above this area would signal that the recent corrective decline from October's all-time high has concluded, allowing the upward trend to continue.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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