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01.11.2024 09:47 AM
What to Watch on November 1? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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Plenty of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, all coming from the U.S.; each is highly significant. The market will review reports on Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, changes in average wages, and the ISM Manufacturing Index. There's no need to stress the importance of the Non-Farm and unemployment reports. These have become some of the most critical data points for the market and the Federal Reserve. Since U.S. inflation has decelerated less than expected, with the PCE index not slowing at all, the unemployment rate and the labor market will now determine the Fed's next moves. Strong data could allow the Fed to reduce the key rate by 0.25%, with potential pauses in between. Weak data, however, would necessitate labor market support, and the Fed might even consider an additional 0.5% rate cut.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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No noteworthy fundamental events are scheduled for Friday, but given the abundance of macroeconomic events, the market will be entirely focused on them.

General Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the week, the movements of both currency pairs will depend on the macroeconomic context, making them difficult to predict in advance. The euro has found some support from the Eurozone this week, while the pound has not. But today, both pairs are likely to move similarly, as their directions will be influenced primarily by U.S. news.

Basic Trading System Rules:

  1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
  2. If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
  5. On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
  6. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
  7. After the price moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.

Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.

Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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