Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 149.22 price occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's further downward potential, at least in my assessment. For this reason, I didn't sell the dollar. A second test occurred shortly afterward, which could be seen as a potential scenario #2 for buying. However, as you can see on the chart, the pair did not experience a strong upward movement, leading to a loss. In the second half of the day, there is no significant fundamental data from the U.S., so we can only rely on speeches by FOMC members Mary Daly and Adriana D. Kugler. Only highly contradictory statements from policymakers could stop the downward trend observed in the pair throughout the day. As for my intraday strategy, I plan to base my actions on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 149.27 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth to the level of 149.66 (thicker green line on the chart). At 149.66, I will exit buying positions and open selling positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from this level. The pair's growth today will likely depend on hawkish statements from the Fed representatives. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.01 price, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the target levels of 149.27 and 149.66.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below the 149.01 level (red line on the chart), which is expected to lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.65, where I will close selling positions and immediately open buying positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level. The pair will remain under pressure if it fails to rise above 149.30. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.27 price, at which point the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected toward the target levels of 149.01 and 148.65.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – It is important to use the overbought and oversold zones for market entry.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are generally ineffective for intraday traders.