Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 143.80 occurred when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 55 pips, having tested the 143.24 level. Yesterday, the yen reacted poorly to weak data from Japan's Manufacturing PMI and to the speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. However, by midday, following disappointing U.S. reports, pressure on the dollar returned, giving the pair a bearish character and leading to the development of a downward trend. Today's Corporate Service and Consumer Price Index figures from the BOJ pushed the dollar down even further, but then the market stabilized. Control remains with dollar sellers and yen buyers, so the higher the correction in the first half of the day for the pair, the more eager sellers of the dollar will be found. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when reaching the entry point at 143.50 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 143.87 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 143.87, I plan to exit the buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's growth can be anticipated within the correction today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 143.19 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 143.50 and 143.87 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 143.19 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 142.78 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return anytime, as the bearish market for the dollar has not disappeared. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 143.50 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 143.19 and 142.78 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.